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Afternoon Note

Facing Pressure

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
3/18/2026 1:44 PM

Major indices are giving up some of their strength from the previous two sessions, after hotter-than-anticipated February PPI numbers, and ahead of the Fed rate decision at 2 PM EST.

The market doesn’t expect any changes to the fed funds target rate, but are eager to see what weight the recent increase in oil prices has on the Summary of Economic Projections.

As of this morning, Fed funds futures aren’t pricing a full rate cut for the remainder of the year anymore.

The heatmap is mostly red, but there are some notable pockets of green. These pockets are particularly in the following industries: semiconductor and memory related, defense, nuclear, and some asset management names.

Energy (XLE) is still leading the way as energy commodities continue to edge higher. The “safe haven” of Consumer Staples (XLP) is the laggard, followed by Consumer Discretionary (XLY).

President Trump issued a temporary waiver for the Jones Act, making the transport of seaborne cargo cheaper, in a move to ease energy prices.

Anthropic’s Claude AI suite sees notable momentum, with it now accounting for 73.3% of first-time enterprise spending on AI.

Micron (MU) is scheduled to report after the bell today. The report could be such a pivotal report for the semiconductor industry. The memory sector (along with the optical space) has been so far the best in the Technology (XLK) space.


 

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