Afternoon Note
After the open, all the names I watched got hammered on earnings. The big wave of selling came on disastrous consumer confidence results.
The greed and fear gauge lurched into ‘extreme fear.’
Even before this, the extreme bullishness was fading.
The Goldman Sachs’ US Equity Sentiment Indicator of investor position has come down from record levels, but it is still positive overall.
But, the feverish optimism has faded. Is that supposed to be a good thing?
Beyond headlines and fear over tariffs, the bigger dilemma for the market is the lack of rotation, as the Mag Seven and Mega-Cap growth names struggle.
News highs need to outpace new lows by 2.5%, to keep the rally going for six months to a year.
Yesterday, new lows dwarfed new highs, particularly on the NASDAQ. It is even more dire today.
Market Breadth
|
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
New Highs
|
42 |
55 |
New Lows
|
85 |
250 |
Conclusion
We are not panicking. On the contrary, we feel good about some of the closed out positions in the past two weeks and the notion that everyone has cash.
I warned surveys would be inflicted by non-stop media on tariffs and DOGE. I have been worried about “the consumer” for months, most people have been tapped out for a while.
High Beta names are under extra pressure, it is par for the course.
Hang in and be ready to pounce.
Comments |
I think the threat of slashing government spending is slowing investment. When the thought of 2 trillion coming out of people's pockets whether realistic or not is sending investors to the sidelines to see what happens. Charles Mansur on 2/26/2025 6:12:38 AM |
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