The bad news was bad news, and it got even worse with so many “experts” circling the wagon and blowing smoke about the “solid” jobs report.

Treasury Secretary Yellen led the pack, who said the data we saw on Friday proves the labor market is “quite healthy.”

It's very frustrating for so many brilliant people to act like the jobs report didn’t miss the consensus and private sector jobs are vanishing, but also not make for the eventual downward revision of the initial August jobs tally.

The momentum of the labor market is worrisome.

Assuming it modulates now even as the lag effect becomes even more intense and more challenging to curb. I think the Fed must go 50-basis points (bps) and may need a way to articulate that before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

All the critical labor market metrics are moving in the wrong direction, and the participation rate is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Soft Osprey Landing

The osprey is my favorite bird of prey, and the V-22 Osprey is my second favorite plane after the A-10 Warthog. The V-22 Osprey takes off and lands like a helicopter - even carrying heavy cargo. If there is a soft landing, it will take the skill of an Osprey plane and

The steepening yield curve suggests it's too late to stop a recession.

Rough Session

It was a brutal session last Friday, with a sea of red in the S&P 500. Growth sectors took the most damage. But it's been tough, and we begin the new week with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite suffering their worst start to a September in 23 years.

The Heat Map is dotted with small green boxes.

No Winners

Extended factors still couldn’t find any winners; meanwhile, growth and momentum took the biggest drubbing.

The NASDAQ

The NASDAQ Composite broke the trendline and is barreling toward the 200-day moving average, which becomes a ‘must hold’ support point.

Today’s Session

All eyes may be on Apple (AAPL), but I’m still watching Nvidia (NVDA) as the key proxy for the market. The stock must get to $118.00 to attract the kind of buying needed for the ultimate test of making a new all-time high.

Under $102.00, the stock becomes extremely vulnerable to $89.00 on an intraday basis (lots of buyers would arrive). Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) was added to the S&P 500. I think it’s the most oversold sock on the market. 

Strong opens are good, but strong closes are great. It’s where we get real buy signals and bias reversals.

Data will be important this week as well.

Comments

Using Yellen and expert in the same sentence is being quite polite. The Treasury Secretary of State has never met a stimulus she didn't like. Mike T. on 9/9/2024 7:45:28 AM

Other than the Financial Recession of 2007-2009, the quantity of people in Nonfarm payroll employment over-the-month change is about 90 to 160 thousand. 141 thousand was "the normal" everyone has been looking for. If the Payroll report goes below 50 thousand, then you have problems. FRITZ E PIEPER on 9/9/2024 7:36:18 PM

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