Morning Commentary
Considering yesterday’s rough start, it wasn’t an awful session. Some bloom has come off the rose, and the sense of ‘extreme greed’ from one month ago is moving toward neutral.
Market Breadth
Market breadth was negative, save for more new highs than new lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The number of decliners and down volume on the NASDAQ Composite hints at profit-taking.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancers |
704 |
1,178 |
Decliners |
2128 |
3,097 |
New Highs |
101 |
70 |
New Lows |
38 |
134 |
Up Volume |
1.24 billion |
1.34 billion |
Down Volume |
2.61 billion |
3.34 billion |
Crude Breakout
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) broke out, and oil-related stocks followed. The move in crude oil is a combination of seasonality and growing signs of economic rebound in China.
The screen had lots of red, but Meta (META) and Salesforce (CRM) stand out in the crowd.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 trading channel is etched in stone. On the downside, I would initially worry at a test of 5,100 and then 5,063 (50-day moving average). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, and the rate of change is nebulous at best (or worse).
All things being equal, it was an excellent time to test the rally.
Nowhere to Hide
Small-caps got socked the hardest, but there wasn’t anywhere to hide.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a rate cut in June edged higher.
Today’s Session
The market looks to open under some pressure, as all eyes and ears await Fed Chair Powell speaking at noon. The ADP jobs report is not a reliable tool for guessing the government report out on Friday, but the trends usually match. With that in mind, the inflationary aspect of the report jumps out to me. I love seeing goods producing jobs and wage gains, but Powell & Co are going to bristle if these numbers are repeated on Friday.
Tweet |
7/26/2024 1:36 PM | Friday Recovery |
7/26/2024 9:29 AM | WRAPPED AROUND YOUR FINGER |
7/25/2024 12:58 PM | A Look at GDP |
7/25/2024 9:57 AM | TURNING THE PAGE ON RESOLVE |
7/24/2024 1:49 PM | Vulnerable Market |
7/24/2024 9:47 AM | Mega Misses |
7/23/2024 1:04 PM | Lay Summer Session |
7/23/2024 9:25 AM | MOST EXPANSIVE BREADTH = GREATER OPTIMISM |
7/22/2024 1:23 PM | Rebounding |
7/22/2024 9:47 AM | WILL THE HUNT FOR VALUE CONTINUE? |
7/19/2024 1:32 PM | Under Pressure |
7/19/2024 9:56 AM | STAR FOR ONLY A WEEK? |
7/18/2024 1:30 PM | All Eyes on Netflix |
7/18/2024 10:18 AM | BIG BETS ON TRUMP TRADE |
7/17/2024 1:37 PM | Technology Troubles |
7/17/2024 9:59 AM | EMPHATIC! |
7/16/2024 12:44 PM | AI Drifting Lower |
7/16/2024 9:52 AM | NEW KIND OF WINNING |
7/15/2024 1:32 PM | Small Caps On The Move |
7/15/2024 9:50 AM | FULL SPEED AHEAD |
7/12/2024 12:56 PM | Intriguing Small Caps |
7/12/2024 9:48 AM | IT’S GOOD TO BE THE KING |
7/11/2024 1:25 PM | Equal Weight Comeback? |
7/11/2024 9:42 AM | CALLING ALL STOCKS |
7/10/2024 1:15 PM | Rally Broadens |
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