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Morning Commentary

IíLL DRINK TO THAT

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/15/2023 9:55 AM

A group of people holding glasses of beerDescription automatically generated

Happy days are here again!

The skies above are clear again

Let us sing a song of cheer again

Happy days are here again!

It was indeed a happy day for investors yesterday, as the session had an almost celebratory feel.  Ironically, “Happy Days Are Here Again,” released in 1929, didn’t end on a buoyant note. In 1932, FDR began using it as a campaign song, closely associated with the end of prohibition in 1933.

Ninety years later, investors raised their glasses to toast (perhaps) the end of the Fed rate hiking cycle.

Heat Maps

For all publicly traded names, 83.9% finished higher.

Stock Market Map

The S&P 500 saw 79% of names finish in the green, up from the 62% average last week. 

S&P 500 Map

Happy Days remain to be seen, but it was a happy day for sure.

Same Tide Lifts All Boats (and sank a few, too)

All eleven sectors rallied in the session. Interestingly, safe havens enjoyed the biggest gains.

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Michael Burry, an American investor, proudly put on a massive, short position weeks ago. He quietly closed it.

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Smartest Licking

In addition to the monster short positions in stocks and bonds, there had been a big spike in the put/call ratio as investors bet the market was on the cusp of imploding.

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Bond yields are down big, but I want to see what happens if the gap of 4.35 is filled.

Chart

Today’s Session

 

This morning’s economic data was a bit of a mixed bag. PPI had a notable drop and came in well below consensus.

 

PPI MoM

Actual

Consensus

September

Revised

Headline

-0.5%

0.1%

0.5%

0.4%

Core

0.0%

0.3%

 0.3%

 0.2%

 

YoY

Actual

Consensus

Prior

Headline

1.3%

1.9%

2.2%

Core

2.4%

2.7%

2.7%

Retail sales fell for the first time in six months with seven out of 13 categories falling.

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Comments
Charles, this is a concern of mine around retail and earnings (reported or yet to be) around sales. How much of the prior/current analyst estimates were not only tied to interest rates, but in conjunction with the theft occurring? Do you see any improvement on the second part of that, where it's starting to occur at the store and/or law enforcement policy levels in order to turn that around?

Terry Dowler on 11/15/2023 8:43:27 AM
I think the Administration excessive spending feeds the inflation that the Fed is trying to control by rate hikes. Open borders and crime are caused by Democrat donors and compliant NGOís. Democrats should be removed from the two party system!

Michael Beres on 11/16/2023 11:40:26 AM
 

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