Morning Commentary
Yesterday’s session was doomed out of the gate as all major, more significant equity indices tumbled in various news and events.
Just when you might have extended hope, the Russell 2000 was the hardest hit and turned down right on cue at the trendline.

S&P 500
There were few places to hide outside Energy (XLE) and Select Consumer Staples (XLP).

Mega-cap names stumbled, but there could be a different story today after earnings from two stalwarts: Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX).

Bonds continue to be an unmitigated disaster, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slumping to its lowest level in sixteen years.

The trend in the ten-year bond yield is now at levels unseen since the 1960s when bonds were in the middle of a 40-year secular bear.

The Beige Book
The Beige Book shows an assortment of weaknesses. At some point soon, the official data will reflect unofficial reality.

There is no change to the sector weights in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session
Initial claims fell by 13,000 to 198,000 vs the estimates for 212,000. This was a nine-month low but is still a very tight job market.

The four-week moving average, a better gauge, was down 18,561 to 181,181.
Yields are still climbing, and the 10 year is very near 5%, but off the best levels of the day. Investors are eager to hear what Fed Powell has to say today. In the meantime, the market is in the green.
Watch my live special “Unbreakable Investor” town hall today at 2pm on Fox Business.
| Tweet |
| 7/2/2026 1:26 PM | Investors Continue to Rotate |
| 7/2/2026 9:47 AM | MARKET GETTING A LITTLE CHOPPY |
| 7/1/2026 1:32 PM | Solid Footing |
| 7/1/2026 9:41 AM | WHAT A YEAR …AND IT’S ONLY HALFWAY OVER |
| 6/30/2026 1:30 PM | Broadening Move |
| 6/30/2026 9:23 AM | MORE TO SPACE THAN ELON |
| 6/29/2026 1:20 PM | Morning Recovery |
| 6/29/2026 9:34 AM | MARKET'S STRONGER THAN YOU THINK |
| 6/26/2026 1:33 PM | Grinding Off the Lows |
| 6/26/2026 9:23 AM | THE CARD CHANGES |
| 6/25/2026 1:14 PM | Mega-Cap Movement |
| 6/25/2026 9:40 AM | IRRATIONAL PESSIMISM HURTS INVESTORS |
| 6/24/2026 1:11 PM | Twin Tailwinds: Rates and Oil Slide |
| 6/24/2026 9:44 AM | MICRON STEPPING UP TO THE PLATE |
| 6/23/2026 1:06 PM | Tuesday Takes a Breather |
| 6/23/2026 10:00 AM | SLUGGISH |
| 6/22/2026 1:12 PM | Green Beneath the Red |
| 6/22/2026 9:45 AM | MICRON IN THE BATTER'S BOX |
| 6/18/2026 1:21 PM | Freedom Compounds |
| 6/18/2026 10:00 AM | WARSH'S WORLD |
| 6/17/2026 1:12 PM | Warsh at the Plate |
| 6/17/2026 9:41 AM | SEMIS SLIP AS WORLD WATCHES SPACEX |
| 6/16/2026 1:19 PM | Better Under the Hood |
| 6/16/2026 9:19 AM | WHOOP, THERE IT IS! |
| 6/15/2026 1:06 PM | More Than Just Iran |
| More commentary archives | |
|
Home |
Products & Services |
Education |
In The Media |
Help |
About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | All Rights Reserved.
|