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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/19/2023 9:53 AM

Yesterday’s session was doomed out of the gate as all major, more significant equity indices tumbled in various news and events.

Just when you might have extended hope, the Russell 2000 was the hardest hit and turned down right on cue at the trendline.


S&P 500

There were few places to hide outside Energy (XLE) and Select Consumer Staples (XLP).

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Mega-cap names stumbled, but there could be a different story today after earnings from two stalwarts: Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX).

S&P 500 Map

Bonds continue to be an unmitigated disaster, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slumping to its lowest level in sixteen years.


The trend in the ten-year bond yield is now at levels unseen since the 1960s when bonds were in the middle of a 40-year secular bear.


The Beige Book

The Beige Book shows an assortment of weaknesses. At some point soon, the official data will reflect unofficial reality.

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There is no change to the sector weights in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

Initial claims fell by 13,000 to 198,000 vs the estimates for 212,000. This was a nine-month low but is still a very tight job market. 

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The four-week moving average, a better gauge, was down 18,561 to 181,181.

Yields are still climbing, and the 10 year is very near 5%, but off the best levels of the day.  Investors are eager to hear what Fed Powell has to say today.  In the meantime, the market is in the green.  

Watch my live special “Unbreakable Investor” town hall today at 2pm on Fox Business.


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