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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/5/2023 9:45 AM

As yesterday’s session wore on, investors began putting money to work as nine of eleven sectors moved higher.  Interestingly, Energy (XLE) got hammered, which might have mitigated concerns about the economy being too strong.


S&P 500 Map

Oversold Bounce

The ‘fear gauge’ got as low as 16, a colossal contrarian buy signal.


The selloff had been the steepest since the October bounce began. Prior pullbacks with a similar depth came right before the market turned higher.

ISM Services

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 53.6 from 54.5, and new orders declined for the ninth month.

New orders declined, but that didn’t impact prices:

T-Minus 24

In twenty-four hours, we’ll get the September jobs report. The overall trend should continue lower, but there could also be another revision to prior months.


Because of extreme pessimism, a jobs report ‘miss,’ with pedestrian wage gains, would send yields much lower, which should send stocks higher and the dollar lower.


Portfolio Approach

There is no change to the sector weightings in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

Initial jobless set the tone this morning, coming in at 207,000 against consensus of 210,000. That small difference wiped out the higher pre-opening stock market indications.

United States Initial Jobless Claims

More on tomorrow’s jobs report in the afternoon note.



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