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Afternoon Note

First Casualties

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/21/2023 1:33 PM

Many point to the housing market as one of the first casualties of the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes.  This morning, we learned August existing home sales declined to an annualized pace of 4.04 million, the street was looking for 4.10 million.  This is a 3.9% drop from July and a 15.3% decline from a year ago. 

The market is holding up a little better than we expected this morning, but efforts to lure buyers failed, and the last hour of trading could be dicey. 

I'd like to see the NASDAQ Composite to hold here - its pivotal support point.

The LEI is down again, but less than anticipated.

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The non-financial component of the LEI dragged the index down the most with big hits from Consumer Expectations for Business Conditions and ISM index of new orders.

This report has been the centerpiece of many economic models predicting recession, but the timing has been off.  Moreover, not only has the Chief Economist at the Conference Board admitted as much, but she has also repeatedly told me it is her belief the recession will be short and shallow. 

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Bottom line, this is no time to panic.  I do feel the more I try to articulate this, the more confused some subscribers become - that’s human nature, and we understand.

Make sure to reach out to your personal rep or the research desk.

The most important thing is do not panic- let everyone else do that, so we can pick up the pieces. 

No reason to be confused by your commentary. You're quite clear and concise. Your reports are the best pieces I read each day and I thank you for it. Of course, it helps that I agree with you.

neil bradie on 9/21/2023 1:57:10 PM

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