Afternoon Note
The troubled bank parade gets long, and the market gets weaker. But these headlines and reactions are making a good day for fundamentals. Western Alliance has profusely denied it’s looking for a “strategic option,” but nobody is listening.
To be clear, the Fed is okay with all of this – they want money out of the system, and they want a sense of panic to get households to stop spending.
It’s a brutal way to curb inflation – they must come up with more elegant tools.
Apple (AAPL) reports after the close today, just as the market is looking for a savior.
Of the 32 anlysts that follow the stock, 24 have buys, 4 have a hold and 2 a sell rating.
The stock traded lower one week after posting in the last four reports, even after big earnings day pops. I know there is more angst after negative comments from Qualcomm (QCOM) on smart phones, but it’s hard to panic about the best company in the world.
Doesn’t mean the stock can’t sink, or even meander for long stretches.
Lost in all of today’s drama is the jobs report tomorrow. With the Fed changing its language on labor to “robust,” and yesterday’s blowout report from ADP, investors are bracing for a number above consensus. If the headline number is below consensus, look for a huge pop in the stock market.
This morning, the first read on labor productivity in the first quarter saw a 2.7% decline against consensus of a 2.0% decline, as unit labor cost surged to 6.3%, exceeding consensus, and up almost 100% from the fourth quarter. Wage growth has slowed considerably – I expect that to remain the case even with today’s data.
Please do not panic – it feels crappy in part because those in charge have let us down and are now punishing society for their mistakes. The other part of the story is selling good stocks at a loss…guess who buys them?
Those same powers that let you down.
This thing is going to turn soon.
Comments |
The controlling politics of the day want to punish or crush prosperity and or a hard work ethic. Wealth redistribution in the societal order of the day. Banks are being forced to implode so certain stronger political people can advantage their "friends". This debacle started with the huge tonnage of free cash infused into the economy causing long term massive destruction to underlying fundamentals. Period. Keith on 5/4/2023 1:25:02 PM |
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