The Fear and Greed Index rests right in the middle of the range at neutral, that’s not the best description of the market that has strong opinions. The bears are pushing a narrative of doom, and limited options for the economy to have the high ground. At the end, it is the economic data that could get the Fed to pause, and it is why there wasn’t a greater sense of panic.

The fabric of the market bounce is fraying and needs to be restrung quickly.

Market Breadth	NYSE	NASDAQ
Advancers	1,125	1,463
Decliners	1,872	2,961
New Highs	27	53
New Lows	51	272
Up Volume	1.43 billion	1.33 billion
Down Volume	2.47 billion	3.00 billion

Sector Watch & Heat Map

Traditional safe havens enjoyed a strong session yesterday, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) brought up the rear.

 

Right Medicine?

Health Care (XLV) is becoming more attractive to counter potential cyclical and growth weaknesses. The chart looks great – we are spying closely.

Overall, it was a good old-fashioned move into safety and opportunity. 

Today’s Session

Initial jobless claims came in well above consensus and there were monster’s revisions.

• Mar 26 +48,000
• Mar 19 +56,000

Those changes have sent continuing claims rocketing higher

Bond yields are down slightly.  The news is good for the stock market in a potentially perverse way – it gets the Fed to stop hiking sooner rather than later. 

The problem is, will it be too late by the time all those PhDs wakeup?

I’m watching the Russell 2000 closely as it’s the only major equity indices indicating higher at the moment. It’s been beaten to smithereens of late and there are lots of oversold names although at this point I would rather swing trade them than take longer term positions. On this sieves, we are drilling down to achieve the latter.

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