Technology (XLK) stocks once again led another great session on Friday. I get that the naysayers are upset – they’ve missed a monster move (and retail caught it). But the market can remain nuts longer than most investors can remain solvent, or in the case of the ‘experts,’ get paid handsome fees for underperforming – by a country mile.

Admittedly, the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) looks so far ahead that a pullback seems reasonable- just don’t bet on it.

Heat Map

Very little red on the screen on Friday, or for the week, suggests cash is moving around trying to find the next big mover. Professionals were doing some quarter-ending window dressing where there were a ton of potential opportunities. 

Friday

Quarter

Quarter Winners

Tesla (TSLA) paved the way for autos to dominate as the top industry group in the first quarter. And last week, other electric vehicle (EV) names got in the mix: Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Lucid Group (LCID), Nio Inc (NIO), and Xpeng Inc (XPEV). I still think of these as trading vehicles more than a buy and hold, although RIVN is becoming very attractive as the kind of long-term buy and hold that could lead to a windfall.

Technical View

I’d like to see the S&P 500 fill the gap slightly above 4,200, draw out all the sellers causing a pullback, and then reverse higher. That would be the breakout that would trigger buying, even among those loath to buy.

Breadth

Market breadth is still lagging the highs of February when there was much fanfare of a breadth thrust. It’s just one thing naysayers are pointing to, and there is no doubt we’d like to see wider participation. 

Market Breadth	NYSE	NASDAQ
Advancers	2,506	3,159
Decliners	506	1,293
New Highs	65	95
New Lows	19	142
Up Volume	3.69 billion	4.26 billion
Down Volume	813.3 million	1.25 billion

Economic Calendar

Lots of key data out this week that will inform the market, but I suspect a tight trading range with one big up and one bid down session. The oddity is the jobs report is out on Good Friday when the market is closed. So, we won’t have to hear the cheering of data showing slowing wage growth. 

Portfolio Approach

There are no changes to our sector weighing in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

OPEC & Co shocks oil market and sends an ominous message.  This is a shot across the bow of the administration.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed right at the 50-day moving average on Friday, and it surged above $80.00. If it holds here, the next leg up would lift to $84.80 test.

Let’s see how the market shakes out from this news, which will influence everything, including central bank policy.

I like that the rally was broadening out and would like to see that continue (on up days).

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