Friday’s session was an extension of what we’ve seen this year, save for the big move lower in Energy (XLE). Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Consumer Staples (XLP) are down as Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), and Communication Services (XLC) names are higher.

On the week, tech names dazzled, and they still have a ton of room on the upside, although they are short-term overbought.

Check This Out

The S&P 500 finished the week above its 200-day moving average, but the Big Six mega-cap names all finished below their respective 200-day moving averages. That’s Bullish.

Market breadth is super-duper positive and at the highest levels since the top in November 2021.

Weary of the Fed

Over the weekend, the current Fed whisper wrote a nebulous article about a purported internal debate.  It gives cover for more rate hikes since the U-3 Unemployment number won’t collapse, and the Street and financial media is poised to cheer anything north of 190,000 net jobs (hint: that is not strong).

Earnings Misses Built-In

We will be watching earnings closely as well. But first, I should point out that earnings sentiment and consensus keep edging lower. But it was almost a moot point last week as stocks rallied hard on big earnings misses.

Biggest Test

Each successive week has been an even greater test for the market, and this week will be the greatest: 

• Economic Data
• Federal Reserve
• Market Stretched
• Jobs Report

Today’s Session

Futures are under pressure this morning as investors prepare for the Fed Reserve rate announcement and more economic data. Plus, many talking heads say we are due for a pullback after the recent huge run. 

Treasury yields are up today.  Perhaps, in part to an article by Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal, suggesting the Fed is worried that inflation could reoccur as labor markets remain tight.