Morning Commentary
The market continues in stealth rally mode. Leadership shifts from day to day. but the action in Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) continue to amaze. However, Energy (XLE) stocks held up well versus the big decline in oil, and something is breaking there (my goal has been to grab more exposure on a dip).
Stealth Move
The real story of the market is how widespread strength has become. There is already broader participation in this market than in the June rally.
The big question and debate are whether this is a bear market rally also sticking with seasonality trends, or the start of something more substantial and sustainable. There are lots of boxes to check on that score; for now, we are sticking with the plan of trying to maximize the bear rallies using our same methodology but with shorter holding periods.
Portfolio Approach
There are no sector weighting changes in our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
Black Friday is the perfect day to focus on the retail ETF: XRT.
It’s been acting better and could be forming a cup and handle, which is generally very bullish. The key is to get above 75.00.
Due to the holiday shortened trading session, the market will close at 1:00 pm ET, and there will be no afternoon report. Enjoy the weekend.
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10/17/2025 1:43 PM | Friday Zig Zag |
10/17/2025 9:51 AM | They Warned Us About Everything Else |
10/16/2025 1:33 PM | Another Intraday Reversal |
10/16/2025 9:30 AM | ENCOURAGING BUT NEED MORE |
10/15/2025 1:23 PM | Intraday Weakness |
10/15/2025 9:53 AM | STRONG “DOWN” DAY |
10/14/2025 1:27 PM | Intraday Recovery |
10/14/2025 9:45 AM | HO, HO, HO |
10/13/2025 1:42 PM | Fears Eased |
10/13/2025 9:49 AM | ROUGH BUT NOT HELLISH |
10/10/2025 1:48 PM | Chinese Trade Negotiations Reignite |
10/10/2025 10:05 AM | BIRTHDAY BREAK |
10/9/2025 1:25 PM | Shutdown Continues |
10/9/2025 9:53 AM | DOOM PORN DOESN’T DISTRACT INVESTORS |
10/8/2025 1:14 PM | FOMC Minutes in Focus |
10/8/2025 9:45 AM | DIFFERENT TYPES OF BOTTOM FISHING |
10/7/2025 1:34 PM | Taking a Breather |
10/7/2025 9:55 AM | LOTS OF CHASING BUT SOME BOTTOM FISHING TOO |
10/6/2025 1:36 PM | AMD deal powers Semiconductors |
10/6/2025 9:42 AM | ROTATION HAS BEGUN |
10/3/2025 1:30 PM | Midday Air Pocket |
10/3/2025 9:33 AM | MUSCLE MEMORY & AI FRENZY |
10/2/2025 1:34 PM | Searching for Direction |
10/2/2025 9:47 AM | A HEALTHY ROTATION |
10/1/2025 1:29 PM | Shutdown Resolve |
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