ISM Services for October released earlier this morning at 54.4, which is the lowest since May 2020 and below consensus of 55.5.

Comments are mixed, but one respondent in professional services says ‘we are preparing for a recession.’

One retail trade a respondent mentioned “labor is more available this year than last.”

Overall, this report was much needed to bring back the notion inflation has done, a number on the economy and pushing it too far the other way is a distinct possibility.

While more and more parts of the economy are showing cracks, the Federal Reserve needs to see more evidence.  Yet, the economy has surged too as the top concern for voters in next week’s midterm elections. 

This all brings to mind that line from Cool Hand Luke: what we have here is a failure to communicate.

Layoff announcements are coming faster with Lyft cutting close to seven hundred workers or 13% of their workforce and Amazon is pausing on new incremental hiring.

The Fed is playing a dangerous game, not just with the size of rate hikes, but the cockiness that they can simply reverse course at any time, and all will be well…it won’t.