Afternoon Note
The market is trying to shake that trend of closing lower the day after being up 2% or more on FOMC decision day. The difference today is earnings in names across a wide swath of the economy.
|
FOMC Day 2% Moves |
Day Of Decision |
Day After Decision |
|
Mar 18, 2008 |
4.2% |
-2.4% |
|
Aug 5, 2008 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
|
Dec 16, 2008 |
5.1 |
-1.0 |
|
Jan 28, 2009 |
3.4 |
-3.3 |
|
Apr 29, 2009 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
|
Aug 9, 2011 |
4.7 |
-4.4 |
|
Dec 17, 2014 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
|
Apr 29, 2020 |
2.7 |
-0.9 |
|
Mar 16, 2022 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
|
May 4, 2022 |
3.0 |
-3.6 |
|
Average |
3.1 |
-1.2 |
After the bell more companies are reporting, including Amazon (AMZN). Estimates have come way down, and the stock has been hammered after reporting. The stock is heavily shorted, however, and could spark a big squeeze.

|
Reaction to Earnings AMZN |
Week |
Day |
|
Feb 2021 |
-2.3 |
-2.0 |
|
Apr 2021 |
-4.7 |
+0.1 |
|
Jul 2021 |
-6.1 |
-7.4 |
|
Oct 2021 |
+1.2 |
-1.8 |
|
Feb 2022 |
+12.9 |
+11.9 |
|
Apr 2022 |
-19.6 |
-14.1 |
Apple (AAPL) also post results after the close. The stock has been better than Amazon, but still not the apple of the eye of all of Wall Street, as it once was.

|
Reaction to Earnings AAPL |
Week |
Day |
|
Feb 2021 |
-2.3 |
-2.0 |
|
Apr 2021 |
-4.7 |
+0.1 |
|
Jul 2021 |
-6.1 |
-7.4 |
|
Oct 2021 |
+1.2 |
-1.8 |
|
Feb 2022 |
+12.9 |
+11.9 |
|
Apr 2022 |
-19.6 |
-14.1 |
Although we continue to proceed with caution, I am loving this action. If the PCE inflation number is below consensus tomorrow, this could be a monster week.
| Tweet |
| 3/24/2026 1:27 PM | Participation Broadens |
| 3/24/2026 9:38 AM | GOOD TRY |
| 3/23/2026 1:20 PM | Market Over Sold |
| 3/23/2026 9:53 AM | OVERSOLD SIGNALS ABOUND |
| 3/20/2026 1:20 PM | From the Strait to the Street |
| 3/20/2026 9:45 AM | SIGNS OF LIFE |
| 3/19/2026 1:25 PM | Continued Pressure |
| 3/19/2026 9:44 AM | MIC DROP |
| 3/18/2026 1:44 PM | Facing Pressure |
| 3/18/2026 9:43 AM | STILL TEPID |
| 3/17/2026 1:27 PM | Continued Resilience |
| 3/17/2026 9:41 AM | GREEN AHEAD OF ST PATRICKS DAY |
| 3/16/2026 1:19 PM | Green Screen |
| 3/16/2026 9:49 AM | TRADING ACTION HINTS AT MAJOR REVERSALS |
| 3/13/2026 1:40 PM | Volatility Continues |
| 3/13/2026 9:33 AM | ON DOWNWARD AUTOPILOT |
| 3/12/2026 1:35 PM | Tech Resilience Fades |
| 3/12/2026 9:40 AM | HOLDING ON, BUT STRUGGLING |
| 3/11/2026 1:19 PM | Mid-Week Movements |
| 3/11/2026 9:37 AM | COMMUNICATION GAUGE CURBS MOMENTUM |
| 3/10/2026 1:38 PM | Showing Resolve |
| 3/10/2026 9:39 AM | OIL RETREATS – STOCKS SURGE |
| 3/9/2026 1:16 PM | Opening The Hormuz Oil Spigot |
| 3/9/2026 9:34 AM | GET THE SHIPS MOVING |
| 3/6/2026 1:33 PM | Friday Fuel Frenzy |
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