Charles Payne's Market Commentary

Afternoon Note

Shake The Trend

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/28/2022 1:12 PM

The market is trying to shake that trend of closing lower the day after being up 2% or more on FOMC decision day. The difference today is earnings in names across a wide swath of the economy.

FOMC Day 2% Moves	Day Of Decision	Day After Decision
Mar 18, 2008	4.2%	-2.4%
Aug 5, 2008	2.9	0.3
Dec 16, 2008	5.1	-1.0
Jan 28, 2009	3.4	-3.3
Apr 29, 2009	2.2	-0.1
Aug 9, 2011	4.7	-4.4
Dec 17, 2014	2.0	2.4
Apr 29, 2020	2.7	-0.9
Mar 16, 2022	2.2	1.2
May 4, 2022	3.0	-3.6
Average	3.1	-1.2

After the bell more companies are reporting, including Amazon (AMZN). Estimates have come way down, and the stock has been hammered after reporting. The stock is heavily shorted, however, and could spark a big squeeze.

Reaction to Earnings AMZN	Week	Day
Feb 2021	-2.3	-2.0
Apr 2021	-4.7	+0.1
Jul 2021	-6.1	-7.4
Oct 2021	+1.2	-1.8
Feb 2022	+12.9	+11.9
Apr 2022	-19.6	-14.1

Apple (AAPL) also post results after the close. The stock has been better than Amazon, but still not the apple of the eye of all of Wall Street, as it once was.

Reaction to Earnings AAPL	Week	Day
Feb 2021	-2.3	-2.0
Apr 2021	-4.7	+0.1
Jul 2021	-6.1	-7.4
Oct 2021	+1.2	-1.8
Feb 2022	+12.9	+11.9
Apr 2022	-19.6	-14.1

Although we continue to proceed with caution, I am loving this action. If the PCE inflation number is below consensus tomorrow, this could be a monster week.

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