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Afternoon Note

Like Yesterday

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
12/29/2021 1:13 PM

Just like yesterday, Technology came out the gate with a fair amount of gusto, although with no volume, and it quickly turned lower, as the ten-year bond yield turned higher. This is getting kind of goofy to be honest. The ten-year yield is up for the year but still down a lot from the March spike (blue chart), which was still very low. 

Maybe, it's the velocity the yield is moving up today (red chart line), but even that's a stretch.  I think it's more profit-taking and maybe the big move on the Street away from tech - at least that's what these active money managers are saying - note 90% underperformed this year. 

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WTI is moving higher for the sixth day, rising above $77 today.  The  EIA Petroleum Status Report showed US oil inventories fell last week by 3.576 million barrels last week,  which was greater than the forecast for a decline of 3.143 million barrels. Oil has had its strongest performance in more than a decade, as demand grows, and supply constraints continue.  For 2021, oil is up more than 50%.  

Housing

Pending home sales fell 2.2% in November versus the estimates for an increase of 0.5%, after rising 7.5% in October. Limited supply and high prices continue to weigh on the industry.

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According to Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, "There was less pending home sales action this time around, which I would ascribe to low housing supply, but also to buyers being hesitant about home prices. While I expect neither a price reduction, nor another year of record-pace price gains, the market will see more inventory in 2022 and that will help some consumers with affordability."

Year over year, pending home sales were down 2.7%..  

 


 

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