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Morning Commentary

CYBERSECURITY & HUMAN ELEMENT

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
4/27/2021 9:25 AM

The rally is broadening, which is great news, as 454 S&P 500 names are higher on the year with an average gain of 18.31%. But, let’s face it, investors want to see those mega growth names lead the way, and maybe that will be the case as the NASDAQ Composite closed at an all-time high yesterday.

Volume remains very light but was overwhelmingly bullish yesterday, especially for the NASDAQ.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancing

2,074

2,853

Declining

1,230

1,340

52 Week High

396

249

52 Week Low

16

25

Up Volume

2.68B

3.88B

Down Volume

1.02B

577.94M

Cybersecurity

Considering the headlines of massive data breaches and the threat to every aspect of the economy, electric grids, and government agencies (including the Department of Defense), cybersecurity stocks have never really lived up to the hype or potential. 

Perhaps that changes after the monster deal announced yesterday that sees Thoma Bravo Advantage (TBA) buying Proofpoint (PFPT) for $12.3 billion in cash. Interestingly, Proofpoint focuses on what they call “people-centric security and compliance” rather than the old perimeter defenses like databases, PCs, file shares, and local area networks.  

I think there are more opportunities in this niche, and we are reassessing our current cyber security positions.

BUG ETF

Technology After the Bell

Tesla (TSLA) posted the perfect quarter; then the stock went straight down. That’s par for the course and has been going on for a long time: 

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat on the top and bottom line, and after waffling, shares turned higher in after-hours trading.

Russell 2000

The Russell 2000 was the best performing large equity index and has a chance to break out. But I caution, this is still considered a head-and-shoulders formation, which is generally bearish.

Consumer Staples were down a lot as I suspect many companies in this space are looking to hike prices and will have a tough time maintaining volume and margins. With all due respect to Procter & Gamble (PG), there are less expensive alternatives to many of the products they plan to raise prices.

S&P 500 Index

+0.18%

 

Communication Services XLC

+0.21%

 

Consumer Discretionary XLY

+0.44%

 

Consumer Staples XLP

 

-1.12%

Energy XLE

+0.67%

 

Financials XLF

+0.40%

 

Health Care XLV

 

-0.34%

Industrials XLI

 

-0.30%

Materials XLB

+0.59%

 

Real Estate XLRE

+0.21%

 

Technology XLK

+0.51%

 

Utilities XLU

 

-0.57%

 

Portfolio Approach

There were no changes yesterday in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

Another day of waiting for the closing bell for earnings results for big-time companies:

Key Earnings Releases

Consensus

Whisper

Tuesday (after close)

 

 

(MSFT) Microsoft

$1.76

$1,86

(GOOGL) Alphabet

$15.50

$17.38

(AMD) Advanced Micro Devices

$0.44

$0.47

(PINS) Pinterest

$0.08

$0.13

It has been a busy morning with some of the most prominent companies reporting earnings in pre-market hours. UPS reported stellar results that saw small and midsize businesses driving gains in the U.S.

Other names reporting:

CROX

-EPS $1.49, consensus $0.87

-Revenues +64% $460.1M, consensus $413.3M

-Digital sales +75.3%, or 32.3% of revenue vs 30.1% last year

Guidance :

-Q2 : Revenues $530-564M, consensus $454.61M

-FY21: Revenues $1.94-2.08B, consensus $1.72B

Note: This is the third consecutive quarter that the firm raises its guidance for the quarter and fiscal year.

GE

-EPS $0.03, consensus $0.01

-Revenues -12% $17.12B, consensus $17.66B

Revenues by Segment:

-Power -3%

-Renewable Energy +2%

-Aviation -28%

-Free Cash Flow -$845M vs -$2.2B last year 

Guidance:

-FY21: EPS $0.15-0.25, consensus $0.24. Industrial revenues to grow organically in the low-digit rage.

UPS

-EPS $2.77, consensus $1.72

-Operating income $2.95B, consensus $1.79B

-Total volume +14.3%

-Revenues +27% $22.91B, consensus $20.62

By segment

-Domestic +22.3%, led by small and medium-sized businesses

-International +23.1%

-Supply Chain and Freight Segment +34.3%

Outlook:

-Sale of UPS freight to close in Q2.

-Capex planned to be about $4B

The futures are relatively flat this morning.  Let’s see how the trading goes this morning. 


 

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