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Afternoon Note

Not Picking A Bottom

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/8/2020 1:14 PM

The major indices are all down, but well off the lows.  The first rebound happened, and it told us a lot about the names we are in, and those we are eyeing for an entry. Friday's lows were violated, but the key is for them to hold on closing basis (I think we may see the same low today as we did on Friday for NASDAQ).

FAANG name continue to get hit, but Netflix (NFLX) is trying to buck the trend and has actually been in positive territory.  Financials are getting hit on the back of the decline in U.S. Treasuries.  The 10-year is down to 0.67%.

Energy is the worst performer as WTI crude nears a three-month low, trading down 8% to $36.40. Concerns that demand is not recovering due to the pandemic, coupled with the upcoming maintenance season, which will cut demand by 1.5 million barrels per day, is adding to the pressure the price.

 

All 11 S&P 500 sectors are in the red.

S&P 500 Index

-1.76%

Communication Services (XLC)

-2.02%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

-0.29%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

-1.85%

Energy (XLE)

-2.91%

Financials (XLF)

-2.25%

Health Care (XLV)

-1.49%

Industrials (XLI)

-1.04%

Materials (XLB)

-1.30%

Real Estate (XLRE)

-1.02%

Technology (XLK)

-2.80%

Utilities (XLU)

-0.92%

Breadth is decidedly negative, and decliners far outweigh advancers. Additionally, there are more 52-week lows than highs.

Issues:

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancing

767

1,130

Declining

2,226

2,237

Issues at:

52 Week High

15

32

52 Week Low

22

37

Volume:

Advancing

694.64M

759.56M

Declining

1.58B

1.24B

 
Optimism

The NFIB Business Optimism Index for August rose to 100.2 from July’s 98.8 and is trending above the long-term average of 98.4. Twelve percent of the owners surveyed believe it’s a good time to expand.  However, expectations that the economy is improving and for higher sales declined among small business owners. NFIB’s chief economist Bill Dunkelberg stated, "We are seeing areas of improvement in the small business economy, as job openings and plans to hire are increasing, but many small businesses are still struggling and are uncertain about what the future will hold."

The VIX, which measure volatility and fear, is up almost 7% to approximately 33, but was as high as 35.93 earlier.

The key is to have dry powder and be prepared to pounce - but not try to pick the bottom. 


Comments
Thanks for your comments.

Jon Sibley on 9/8/2020 6:39:48 PM
 

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