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Morning Commentary

Need More Leadership

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/6/2020 9:22 AM

It was another solid session with rising investor confidence reflected in big rotation out of Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples.  Investors are also making a more serious effort to find value. Hence, the move in financials, which have been something of a puzzle.  Even with low rates, the sector simply hasn’t lived up to the hype.

I am thrilled Industrials led the way, which corroborates an assortment of data suggesting rapid improvement in the industrial economy.  Moreover, Consumer Discretionary is my de factor best measure for confidence and sentiment.

S&P 500 Index



Communication Services XLC



Consumer Discretionary XLY



Consumer Staples XLP



Energy XLE



Financials XLF



Health Care XLV



Industrials XLI



Materials XLB



Real Estate XLRE



Technology XLK



Utilities XLU



Key Breakouts

Better Jobs Data

Initial jobless claims declined to 1,186,000 down 249,000 and well below the consensus of 1.42 million, and the lowest level since the pandemic began.  The grand total of folks that have filed from the March 21 report climbs to 55.32 million, but this is great news overall.

Initial Jobless Claims

United States Initial Jobless Claims

Continuing Jobless Claims declined to 16,107,000 down 844,000!

Continuing Jobless Claims

United States Continuing Jobless Claims

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance swooned to 655,707 from 908,800.  Forty-five states saw declines, while the rest saw de minimis increases.

Portfolio Approach

We added a stock in Healthcare yesterday and our current Cash position is 1 or 5% in our Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

The futures have turned positive on the jobless claims report. 

We own a small business (tunnel car wash with hands on prep and dry) and we had a few people not come back to work because of the extra $600 a week, even our lead guy dragged his heels when we were allowed to open on May 8th here in California. My husband had to give him a "really Tom"? He came bake and brought all but 2 staff along with him. We are now trying to add employees and it is normally very hard since we live in Humboldt County, where our largest export for the last 40 years has not been lumber and fishing, but marijuana. My husband said yesterday he is probably going to have to hire someone he normally would not.

Cheryl Fewell-Brown on 8/6/2020 9:27:51 AM
Cheryl ---- form an old ski bum , in early 1970's --- when it might take a full 4-finger bag of "pot" all day to get a four-some "high" while skiing ---- my thoughts are ---- it was the Boons Farm wine and not the low ---low dose of THC. Today people can get "high" from just snuffing a bud of pot --- let-alone smoke it ---- it is like political speach today ----- most people do not know what is poison or just normal. Best of luck with your future business

john on 8/6/2020 5:50:00 PM

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