The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the United States leaped to 50.9 in January from December’s 47.8 and well above consensus of 48.5.  This is the first ISM Manufacturing number above 50 (expansion) in six months.  Its clear manufacturers are more optimism in the wake of the Phase One China agreement and USMCA.

• PMI 50.9 +3.1
• New Orders 52.0 +4.4
• Production 54.3 +9.5
• Employment 46.6 +1.4
• Backlog 45.7 +2.4
• Imports 51.5 +2.7
• Export Orders 53.3 +6.0

More Upbeat

• Consumer electronics
• Chemicals
• Food (frozen food)
• Fabricated metals

Bearish

• Transportation
• Coal & petroleum
• Machinery

This was really intriguing to me: Tariffs on injection molds will impact selection of mold builder for future jobs. We are more likely to choose domestic rather than offshore.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

The rally stalled on news of the second person to person contact of the Wuhan coronavirus in the United States.  Again it was between spouses.  This time, the husband was recently in Wuhan and now his wife has contacted the virus.  Both are 57 years old and neither have been hospitalized, instead, they haven’t left their home.

Obviously, this is a fluid situation, but it’s important to know the nation’s economy is heading in the right direction, even if some parts are temporarily slowed, most built in growth will materialize. 

Google Up Next

Meanwhile, we are waiting for Google parent Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) to post financial results after the close.  The stock hasn’t fared well over the past year after posting results, even when the company beat the street (the company has missed in two of the last three quarters on earnings).

GOOG shares one week after earnings

• -0.4% 3Q 2019
• +6.5% 2Q 2019
• -7.4% 1Q 2019
• -3.0% 4Q 2018
• -3.2% 3Q 2018

Because the stock has been such a disappointment, there is actually a greater chance Google could beat and rally.

Earnings consensus edged higher in the past three months:

• 7 Days Ago          12.61     12.26     46.35     54.32
• 30 Days Ago       12.57     12.26     46.37     54.26
• 60 Days Ago       12.57     12.25     46.37     54.24
• 90 Days Ago       12.57     12.24     46.32     54.19