The major indices are well off the highs and the S&P 500 is actually in the red and taking a breather. Reports that the U.S. is considering rolling back some tariffs it implemented on China in September as well as delaying imposing additional tariffs in December continue to circulate. The uncertainty surrounding this, and trade in general, is holding back the session.

We received three pieces of economic data, which may have spooked the markets a bit, as expansion was above exceptions while job openings declined.

ISM (Non-Manufacturing Index)

October ISM Non-manufacturing index rose to 54.7% vs estimates of 53.3%, and up from 52.6% in September.  A number above 50 indicates expansion, and this report once again shows the increase in economic activity.  There has not been a number below 50 (contraction) since December 2009.

 

 

• New Orders Index up rose 55.6% from 53.7%
• Employment Index increased to 53.7% from 50.4%
• Prices Index dropped to 56.6% from 60.0%
• Backlog of Orders Index shrunk to 48.5% from 54.0%

BEA (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit declined to $52.5 billion in September 2019 from $55.0 billion in August (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The August deficit first read was $54.9 billion.

• Goods deficit declined $2.7 billion in September to $71.7 billion
• Services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in September to $19.3 billion

Jolts (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)

The job openings in the U.S. for September fell for the fourth consecutive month.  Jobs were down from 7.3 million to 7.02 million, with private sectors down 262,000 and government relatively unchanged. The job openings rate was 4.4%.

• Hires were relatively flat at 5.9 million at a rate of 3.9% with private sector unchanged and government down 30,000
• Separations also relatively flat at 5.8 million at a rate of 2.3%
• Quits were flat while layoffs and discharges were up 152,000

 

Consumer Staples and Financials are the strongest sectors today, while Real Estate and Utilities lag.

S&P 500 Index		-0.07%
Communication Services (XLC)	+0.01%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)	+0.01%
Consumer Staples (XLP)	+0.3%
Energy (XLE)		-0.16%
Financials (XLF)	+0.20%
Health Care (XLV)		-0.67%
Industrials (XLI)		-0.07%
Materials (XLB)		-0.19%
Real Estate (XLRE)		-2.29%
Technology (XLK)		-0.11%
Utilities (XLU)		-0.90%

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