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Morning Commentary

Laboring Big Breakout

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/30/2019 9:38 AM

It was another solid session on light volume ahead of the big Labor Day weekend. These kinds of sessions are always difficult to discern, and more so with the trade war and all the efforts to talk down the economy and stock market. 

My best assessment over the last couple of sessions is the market resolve is good,  but it could have been great.  The most important thing for investors is the development of clear winners and losers in individual sectors and industries.

Moreover, beware of this urge for media and executives to blame tariffs for any and all shortcomings.  Best Buy (BBY) was down because it was a bad quarter and Dollar General (DG) rocketed to an all-time high on a great quarter.

S&P 500 Index

+1.27%

Communication Services (XLC)

+1.56%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

+1.50%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+0.05%

Energy (XLE)

+1.47%

Financials (XLF)

+1.51%

Health Care (XLV)

+0.76%

Industrials (XLI)

+1.71%

Materials (XLB)

+1.28%

Real Estate (XLRE)

+0.72%

Technology (XLK)

+1.74%

Utilities (XLU)

+0.69%

Rotation

I began writing about a potential bond rotation years ago, and that still hasn’t happened, but we got a glimpse of what it could look like yesterday. 

We also got a glimpse of rotation within equities - which could happen a lot sooner than bonds – as the biggest winners the last couple of sessions have been the biggest losers of 2019. 

To be clear, sometimes stock do well from macro actions like flight to safety and sometimes they rock on great news.  That’s the case with Real Estate and Consumer Staples. There have been great earnings reports making these safe havens even more attractive.  

Safety Nets

Utilities (XLU)

Real Estate (XLRE)

Staples (XLP)

One Month

+3.58%

+5.05%

+0.66%

Three Months

+5.57%

+7.01%

+7.41%

The question is where funds should go from here?  Is it into momentum names in Technology and Communications Services or laggards like Energy and Financials?

I’m not going to force the issue on the laggards, but there are sectors and names that aren’t disasters, nor overbought crowded trades, that look inviting. 

Portfolio Approach

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

1

2

1

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

1

1

2

Industrial

Materials

Real Estate

3

2

1

Technology

Utilities

Cash

2

0

4

 

Today’s Session

The major indices are all in the green again this morning, but August is still on track to finish the month lower. 

On the economic front, personal income increased 0.1 percent in July, the smallest gain in nearly a year, following an 0.5 percent in June.

Personal Spending

The largest component of personal income, wages and salaries, increased 0.2 percent in July on after increasing 0.5 percent in June.

Personal Income

Consumer spending was hefty in July, rising 0.6%, while inflation remained low. 

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, was up 0.2% in July, taking the annual rate from 1.3% to1.4%.

PCE

 


Comments
Charles, You are the star on Fox Business.I was very disappointed that your original show was shortened , but I guess you are more prime time now. Love your daily briefing, and when you fill in Liz or Niel you improve their shows with great market insights. I am proud of your life story, and agree with you that we are living in the greatest country in the world.

Dr William Pite on 8/30/2019 11:52:08 AM
Thank you so much Dr. Pite I've worked very hard and have over four decades to get here but know this could only happen in America and I want to preserve this from my children and grandchildren and all the people in this country being told to give up each day. For political reasons its become a more daunting task but it's also more important now than ever as too many are losing faith in the right things and gaining faith in the wrong things (of simply have no faith at all). Thank you again. CP

Charles Payne on 8/30/2019 11:57:12 AM
Charles, you are about the only one left on Fox Business News that I listen to. Fox seems to be leaning more "leftward" every day. If they ever take you off, I will quit watching them for good.

William Brown on 8/30/2019 1:04:34 PM
People on your show and others talk about China saving face when u Lie Steal Manipulate Threaten religions This is not 15th century China They don't have a face to save more fake news

garry brewer on 8/31/2019 9:59:48 AM
 

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