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Afternoon Note

American Consumer in Focus

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/12/2019 1:40 PM

It’s interesting that Goldman Sachs (GS) helped to tilt the market lower with their call this morning of a recession happening sooner than previous estimates after the next round of tariffs were announced.  The smartest guys in the room lowered their fourth quarter GDP estimate to 1.8% from 2.0%, and they now see the trade battle going beyond next year’s election.

It seems intriguing that Goldman’s shares are among the hardest hit in the session reflecting the difficulty big banks have in making money in low rate environment.   The Financials are the hardest hit today followed by Consumer Discretionary names.  

The promise of higher prices on American consumers will be the focus with new tariffs. It’s also fodder for the mainstream media, which gets to guess at things like when the recession hits and when will farmers turn on Trump.

S&P 500 Index

-0.73%

Communication Services (XLC)

-0.53%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

-1.10%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

-0.49%

Energy (XLE)

-1.08%

Financials (XLF)

-1.44%

Health Care (XLV)

-0.53%

Industrials (XLI)

-0.95%

Materials (XLB)

-0.74%

Real Estate (XLRE)

+0.13%

Technology (XLK)

-0.61%

Utilities (XLU)

-0.13%

In the last two weeks, a wide trading range has been carved out.  So, expect continued wild swings within that range.  On that note, the VIX (volatility index) is up almost ten percent today underscoring the fact investors should buckle up…but not panic.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6ysEbqNu/


Comments
The Federal Reserve also is forecasting a 1.9% GDP growth rate for this quarter and the PMI inference is for 1.8% US GDP growth. Goldman is probably pretty accurate.

Brian Bigelow on 8/12/2019 2:09:12 PM
 

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