Afternoon Note
Why a tenuous market remains volatile is headlines versus realities. When the ISM manufacturing report was released this morning, the markets, which were already in retreat, hastened the downside move. The machines that sold were triggered by headlines that spoke to the last time the numbers were this low.
What the headlines didn’t speak to, but investors saw upon actually combing through the data, was continued overall expansion, strong bounces in key categories, including new export orders rebounding back into expansion mode.
There were lots of comments on tariffs, including higher cost, but this line caught my eye most:
“The threat of additional tariffs has forced a change in our supply chain strategy; we are shifting business from China to Mexico, which will not increase the number of U.S. jobs.” (Chemical Products)
Purchasing Managers Index |
Reading |
Change |
PMI headline |
52.1 |
-0.7 |
New Orders |
52.7 |
+1.0 |
Employment |
53.7 |
+1.3 |
New Export Orders |
51.0 |
+1.5 |
Production |
51.3 |
-1.0 |
Prices |
53.2 |
+3.2 |
Total construction was unchanged, as residential investment continues to decline; although, offset by record state and local spending on things like streets, lighting and schools.
April Construction Spending |
Amount |
m/m |
y/y |
Total |
1,298,547 |
0.0 |
-1.2 |
Residential |
$499,320 |
-0.6% |
-11.4% |
Non –Residential |
$454,663 |
-2.9% |
+0.6% |
Public |
$344,565 |
+4.8% |
+15.1% |
Highway & Street |
$113,026 |
+6.9% |
+36.1% |
Education |
$78,106 |
+2.0% |
+9.4% |
Momentum Names under Pressure
Overall, the market is being weighed down by the Communication Services sector where Alphabet (Google) and Facebook (FB) are getting knocked around pretty good. The selling is due to chatter that US government agencies circle both names, and investors brace for actions that would also mean huge fines.
Other momentum names, such as Amazon (AMZN), which is on the governments radar too, are also under pressure this session.
Tweet |
7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
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