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Afternoon Note

Retest

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
12/6/2018 1:56 PM
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On top of the political intrigue that has made the tenuous trade negotiation even more uncertain, there has been an avalanche of fundamental news today – most disappointing, including the ADP jobs report.

The trade battle showed up in several economic reports:

ISM Services

Actually, beat the street at 60.3 versus consensus of 59.0.  The report echoes what other reports have pointed out: the non-manufacturing sector continued to reflect strong growth in November. However, concerns persist about employment resources and the impact of tariffs. Respondents remain positive about current business conditions and the direction of the economy.

Only one of 18 industries saw growth.  Agriculture was slowed by retaliatory tariffs.

International Trade

The trade deficit surged to $55.5 billion, the highest level since 2008, powered higher by the record trade deficit of $43.1 billion with China.

United States Balance of Trade

Factory Orders

Declined 2.1%, the street was looking for -2.0%.

Productivity and Unit Labor Costs

This is the first revision, quarterly data.  Productivity 2.3% was in-line with consensus, unit labor costs rose slightly less than expected at 0.9%. 

Buyers Emerging

There is buying today and its focused on the most beaten down sectors.

Macro issues are helping, include rising wages, lower mortgage rates and lower gas prices.  Of course, there is also the fact these stocks are very cheap using traditional valuation metrics and the recent decline in median prices and increase in months’ supply are making houses more affordable.

Major indices off the lows and in the process of tested the recent lows that technician insist must be tested.  The S&P 500 session low of 2,621 was right at the 2,632 November 23 close. 

If the market can find traction from here, it would be considered a major buy signal for technicians.

   

 


 

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