Morning Commentary

Did someone say “coiled spring? Actually, yesterday was another hint at what this market is capable of once the coast is clear.
All major indices finished higher, with micro-caps enjoying the largest gain at 4.11%, but the real star was the NASDAQ, which rallied 3.83%.
Panic buying sent the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) TICK Index to +2329 at 12:41 EST, the highest reading on record since 1993. Just about every stock on the NYSE was trading on an uptick.
By the closing bell, 84% of the S&P 500 (SPX) was higher, which is kind of low for the point-and-percentage gain. But it was a good session and a good lesson. Even if there is more room on the downside, it's too late to close most positions.
More Wood to Chop
The S&P 500 still has to close above its 200-day moving average before we allow ourselves to become too excited. Above the 50-day moving average, we will be outright giddy. Keep watching “Mag Seven,” they will play a decisive role in leading the market higher.
On the downside, 6,200 remains a pivot – a must-hold support point.

Interestingly, crude oil finished higher on the session, closing near $102 a barrel.

Bargain Hunting
We like seeing the largest squares and rectangles move higher, but the most encouraging move came from Micron Technology (MU).

Several “Mag Seven” names are legitimate “value” stocks and dirt cheap based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio.


Momentum = Mass X Velocity
We are spying components of the Momentum ETF (MTUM), which rocked across the board yesterday. It's more oversold than the broader market, but it has some compelling names that have, for the most part, been higher over the past couple of years on fundamentals.

There is work to be done still for MTUM to take flight, but these names hold great potential.

Happy April
This is usually one of the best months of the year – let's hope it rains down good fortune.

Today’s Session

We found out earlier this week that consumer confidence is stronger than the media and Wall Street narratives, and this morning, retail sales for February came in much better than expected.
I have to say I’m pleasantly surprised by clothing, health, personal care, and by department stores (reports of their demise are now three decades old).
Miscellaneous sales also point to discretionary spending. The Control Group came in at +0.5 against the consensus of +0.3.

Iran Update
President Trump is set to speak to the nation tonight at 9:00 PM on the Iran Conflict. Moments ago, he posted:

I remain very optimistic – we are winning decisively, and President Trump is looking for an off-ramp, but Iran needs it the most.
| Tweet |
| 4/2/2026 1:27 PM | Calming Tensions |
| 4/2/2026 9:35 AM | LIFTOFF |
| 4/1/2026 1:45 PM | April Fools: Jokes on the Bears |
| 4/1/2026 9:33 AM | OILING THE SPRINGS |
| 3/31/2026 1:25 PM | Markets Rally on Easing Geopolitical Concerns |
| 3/31/2026 9:34 AM | SHOOTING GALLERY |
| 3/30/2026 1:36 PM | Mixed Monday |
| 3/30/2026 9:37 AM | THE NEXT PHASE |
| 3/27/2026 1:26 PM | Waiting for The Dust to Settle |
| 3/27/2026 9:59 AM | STRESSED & FATIGUED |
| 3/26/2026 1:54 PM | Thursday Dip |
| 3/26/2026 9:42 AM | LOOKING FOR LEADERSHIP |
| 3/25/2026 1:42 PM | Facing Resistance |
| 3/25/2026 9:28 AM | Good Retry |
| 3/24/2026 1:27 PM | Participation Broadens |
| 3/24/2026 9:38 AM | GOOD TRY |
| 3/23/2026 1:20 PM | Market Over Sold |
| 3/23/2026 9:53 AM | OVERSOLD SIGNALS ABOUND |
| 3/20/2026 1:20 PM | From the Strait to the Street |
| 3/20/2026 9:45 AM | SIGNS OF LIFE |
| 3/19/2026 1:25 PM | Continued Pressure |
| 3/19/2026 9:44 AM | MIC DROP |
| 3/18/2026 1:44 PM | Facing Pressure |
| 3/18/2026 9:43 AM | STILL TEPID |
| 3/17/2026 1:27 PM | Continued Resilience |
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