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Afternoon Note

Record Run On Hold

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
5/15/2026 1:26 PM

Major indices are poised to finish a record-setting week on a lower note as the street weighs Trump’s visit to China, rising oil prices, and higher treasury yields.

The Energy (XLE) sector is the only sector trading higher supported by a rising price of oil, with the commodity on track to gain $10/bbl this week. On the other hand, Materials (XLB) is the worst performing sector as silver collapsed below $80 an ounce in a week of extreme price swings.

Fed Powell’s term ends today and the market is already starting to test new Fed Chair Warsh. The 10 Year Tresury Yield (TNX) sits at its highest level since May of last year, and there is around a 60% probability of a hike this year.

April Industrial Production saw its strongest reading since February, at +0.7% MoM and surpassing the consensus of +0.3%. Revisions were also a net positive, moving the 3-month average up to +0.34% from March’s 0.06%.


 


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