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Morning Commentary

THAT'S NOT A MUSHROOM CLOUD

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/13/2026 9:25 AM

Humpback whale blowing water scratchboard - Royalty-Free Vector |  VectorStock

All it takes is a couple of down sessions after the magnificent rally the market has enjoyed to re-energize the “boo-birds.”

The good news for them is that the market is cyclical, and corrections and crashes are inevitable. The bad news for them is that these have occurred less frequently in the past, and anyone sitting on their hands, screaming about valuations and concentration, has missed a pretty good ride.

The truth is, they have been missing the ride since 2009, when they warned of waiting for the “other shoe” that would drop at any moment, taking out the March 2009 low.  I think the rally is blowing off steam, much like a whale spouting water, but don’t mistake the shape of the water as an ominous signal.

Blow-off tops are usually associated with massive volume spikes and a parabolic rate of change (ROC). The latter has calmed considerably, even before this week. It's true, the relative strength index (RSI) is still at overbought levels, but I don’t think this is the beginning of the end.

The S&P 500 (SPX) was in a more defensive posture, but seven of the eleven sectors were higher.

The Decliners

Yesterday, the hottest stocks took the session off. I suspect the buy-on-the-dip crowd is licking its chops and looking for more weakness before pouncing - I have several stocks on my radar.

Today’s Session

Present Trump just landed in China, and there is a lot of anticipation on numerous fronts, especially from the business community (which includes Jensen Huang).

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PPI

The PPI report came in significantly hotter than consensus.

It’s a problem, but it doesn’t overshadow or stop the major narratives moving this market. The big picture is the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

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Watching semiconductors and momentum stocks today to see if they regain equilibrium. Many are higher pre-open.


Comments
Nothing of consequence

SCOTT HECK on 5/13/2026 10:32:15 AM
 


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