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Afternoon Note

Markets Rally on Easing Geopolitical Concerns

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
3/31/2026 1:25 PM

Major indices are moving higher and looking to end a tumultuous month of March, on a higher note. The market hit session highs after Iran’s President Pezeshkian announced they are ready to end the war “with guarantees.” There is also additional optimism with President Trump telling aides he is willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

There is green across the screen, with all seven magnificent names moving higher. Meanwhile, there are smaller patches of red in Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU).

There is a solid rebound in tech and mega-cap names pushing Communication Services (XLC), Technology (XLK), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to the top of the leaderboard. Meanwhile, the more defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) are lagging.

Economic Data

Job openings in February fell by 358K to 6.882M, below estimates of 6.92M. The largest decline was a 211K dip in job openings in accommodation and food services.

In addition, the private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3%, hitting its lowest point since early 2010 when the unemployment rate was around 10%. On the other hand, layoff rate continues to remain unchanged at low levels.

March’s Chicago PMI declined to 52.8 from 57.7 in February, missing expectations of 55.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed Services Index moved 10.1 points lower to -13.3 in March. Notably, the report showed revenue growth slowing to 1.3 from 4.1 and input prices increasing to 24.4 from 22.4.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index moved up by 0.8 points to 91.8 in March, ahead of the anticipated decline to 88. The Present Situation Index rose 4.6 points to 123.3, partially offset by the Expectations Index falling by 1.7 points to 70.9.


Comments
The stock market is looking incredible today, but I can't help to think this all could be the result of a head-fake. Lots of smart people, Jamie Dimon, Gen Jack Keane among them, say we've come too far to let up now. I get the politics and short-term pain caused by not stopping the war but a world without the current regime in Iran seems worth it.

Mike M on 3/31/2026 1:38:27 PM
 

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