Real Life Laser Tag

I trained with laser tag while in the U.S. Air Force, and loved it, so I was thrilled when I got out and saw that laser tag was sweeping the nation. The Golden Age of laser tag was the late 1980s, when we would just have indiscriminate shootouts. That’s how the tech world feels right now.

A couple of weeks ago, Alphabet (GOOG/L) got hit by the rapid growth of Anthropic’s Claude, and then Google reintroduced an algorithmic product that knocked the stuffing out of memory stocks.  Yesterday's memory king, Samsung, announced it was developing a photonics product, and that news crushed photonics stocks, which had been untouchable.

Broad Market Decliners

Those names were scorched. Neocloud names were torched. Perhaps it’s the environment that sparked profit-taking, as most of these names have been on a tear, but they were up at the start of trading, so the abrupt reversal was something to behold.

Among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 (SPX), Hardware stocks were zapped.

Chips Dipping

This is becoming more than a garden-variety decline for semiconductors as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) continues to barrel toward its 200-day moving average.  Several of the top ten components fetched buy ratings yesterday, but still turned lower on the Samsung news.

Bottom Fishing

Don’t look now, but software (IGV) charged ahead.

Creative Instruction

Yesterday, I read the most compelling piece, which underscored that artificial intelligence (Al) memory optimization has been in overdrive for the past couple of years. The suggestion is that memory companies don’t have to become obsolete, but must also continue to evolve.

Powell Relaxed

Jay Powell gave a very relaxed presentation yesterday at Harvard, covering a variety of topics, including oil-influenced inflation. Right now, he doesn’t see it. Bond yields moved lower, and modeling for the next rate move shifted back to a cut rather than a hike.

Extreme Fear & Market Bottoms

Most major firms on the Street continue to write positively about the market, and none have lowered their S&P 500 target, which I wish they would. I prefer the Street to move into panic mode to truly shake out weak hands.

                                   

I suppose most have been shaken out this month anyway.

Today’s Session

I watched the Department of War briefing this morning and came away feeling more confident than ever that the Conflict is moving in the right direction. Talk of walking away and giving the Strait to Iran, as suggested in a Wall Street Journal article, is nuts.

The Powell Pivot is being underreported.

The market isn’t extremely oversold, but the Mag Seven has taken a beating beyond imagination.  Along with Oracle (ORCL), its 85% of the decline in the S&P 500.

It will be interesting to see if a strong start holds – a key piece of the ultimate “buy signal” will be a strong close. I’m still in the “coiled spring” camp. 

Don’t despair.

Comments

It looks like we are getting close to a bottom in the markets depending on what happens next in Iran. I agree with your point about the Dept of War briefing this morning. I think there's a lot of misdirection going on right now. Buckle up. Mike M on 3/31/2026 9:42:09 AM

Yesterday NVDA traded at a 20 forward PE. I added a little. Charles Lucente on 3/31/2026 11:49:39 AM

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