Morning Commentary

Yesterday, an aura of indecisiveness settled over the market, as artificial intelligence (AI) concerns offset good economic data and great earnings.
Now, it's two steps forward, then two steps back, with the internals bouncing around like dice on a craps table. Large-cap quality rocked, and mid-cap quality got rocked yesterday. Go figure?

Equal Weight Rules

A major story is the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), which is enjoying its largest outperformance relative to cap-weight (SPY) since 1992, yet the long-term chart suggests the move could still be a flash in the pan.

Is The Tech Rally Over?
Technology (XLK) names dominate the top advancers list for 2026, but the massive hit to software (IGV) has led “experts” to write off the entire tech industry.

Right now, the moral to the story is to ‘chase and hold’ performance regardless of valuations – let the knives settle before picking any of them up.

The Latest Scare
In 1933, Universal Pictures released “The Invisible Man,” based on an H.G. Wells novel. Claude Rains was masterful in his performance, helping it to become a major hit. I’m not sure why Anthropic named its AI product “Claude,” but it and others are wreaking terror and havoc on the stock market, much as Rains and “The Invisible Man” did in the 1930s.

Every day brings potentially new AI victims to the stock market. Hold on, it’s a crazy ride.
Today’s Session
It's amazing to see Wall Street suggest retail investors are getting crushed because some of their favorite trades are down recently after monumental moves. Retail sentiment peaked two weeks ago.

Retail investors were not buyers of software going into the rout. They are buying the dip in part because they are doing fundamental research, while the mavens are selling on narratives.

Technically, this looks like a good place to start positions, but I admit we are still doing work here trying to discern risk from hype.

| Tweet |
| 2/12/2026 1:32 PM | Fears of AI Disruption |
| 2/12/2026 9:19 AM | THE VISIBLE HAND OF AI TERROR |
| 2/11/2026 1:23 PM | Bumpy Start |
| 2/11/2026 9:43 AM | SHORTS SMELL BLOOD |
| 2/10/2026 1:46 PM | Modest Gains |
| 2/10/2026 9:35 AM | SCRIPT STILL FLIPPED |
| 2/9/2026 1:23 PM | A Solid Start to The Week |
| 2/9/2026 9:41 AM | TRANSPORTATION TELLS THE STORY |
| 2/6/2026 1:36 PM | Much Needed Rebound |
| 2/6/2026 9:41 AM | NOBODY GETS THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT |
| 2/5/2026 1:29 PM | Thursday Pullback |
| 2/5/2026 9:42 AM | TAKING BACK THE NARRATIVE |
| 2/4/2026 1:21 PM | Wednesday Wobble |
| 2/4/2026 9:29 AM | PAC-MAN ON THE PROWL |
| 2/3/2026 12:33 PM | Software Carnage |
| 2/3/2026 9:31 AM | THE WELL-WORN PATH TO PROSPERITY |
| 2/2/2026 1:15 PM | Nice Start To The Week |
| 2/2/2026 9:39 AM | POWELL SKATES PAST REPORTERS |
| 1/30/2026 1:07 PM | Market Digests Fed’s Pick |
| 1/30/2026 9:20 AM | Memory Momentum |
| 1/29/2026 12:32 PM | Software Slides |
| 1/29/2026 9:35 AM | POWELL SKATES PAST REPORTERS |
| 1/28/2026 1:24 PM | Big Tech On Deck |
| 1/28/2026 10:11 AM | CALLING IN THE (NEW) BIG GUNS |
| 1/27/2026 1:28 PM | Split Session |
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