Afternoon Note
Major indices pulled back from their early highs and are now mixed. The S&P 500 briefly crossed over the 7,000 mark, as the Street gets ready for the latest Federal Reserve rate decision and earnings from mega cap techs.

All eleven sectors are showing relatively narrow gains and losses. Energy (XLE) is leading today, with oil relatively higher driven by potential supply disruptions in Iran as U.S. naval assets arrived in the Middle East. Semiconductors are once again helping Technology (XLK), after bullish guidance from the chip equipment specialist ASML (ASML).

The Street expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged. Notably, the 2026 FOMC voters have a lot of folks in the middle, while some hawks, and some doves. This won’t affect much today, but will matter in coming meetings.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) is reversing some of yesterday’s losses after Treasury Secretary Bessent eased concerns around the weakening U.S. dollar. He noted the U.S. has a ‘strong dollar policy,” and indicated he is more concerned in the policy backdrop than in the weakening of the greenback.

Four of the Magnificent Seven are reporting this week, with Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) starting the parade today.
Historically, Meta Platforms (META) has gapped up in three of the last four earnings reports. The Street awaits more color on AI capital expenditure, Reality Lab losses, and the latest response to the Llama 4 model.

Microsoft (MSFT) has gapped down in two of the last four earnings reports. Investors are eager for insights into the company’s financial performance and whether its cloud business remains resilient.

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