Friday’s session was peculiar because it was only the second time the S&P 500 finished up more than one percent and decliners outnumbered advances more than two to one. The only other time was the day after Black Monday.

Market Breadth	NYSE	NASDAQ
Advancers	910	1,657
Decliners	1,933	2,619
New Highs	172	173
New Lows	49	162
Up Volume	1.53 billion	2.08 billion
Down Volume	2.39 billion	2.71 billion

It should be noted the rate of change for the NYSE has generally trended lower since mid-November.

Powell Uses TV to Tamp Enthusiasm

There were several soundbites from Jay Powell’s interview on 60 Minutes yesterday (I read transcripts). 

This was the shot fired across the bow that won’t move markets or lawmakers.

“The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy… We're borrowing from future generations,” says Fed chief Jerome Powell.

The focus of the street is on rate cuts.

Q: Are you committed to getting all the way to 2% before you cut the rates?

Powell: No, no, that's not what we say at all, no. We're committed to returning inflation to 2% over time. I've said that we wouldn't wait to get to 2% to cut rates.

Goldman is out with a note suggesting that while March is off the table, and May could be so-so, there will be five rate cuts, and that means we could see one of 50 bps.

Rate cuts before the election will be very controversial.

A month ago, there was a 95% chance of a rate cut in May and now it’s down to 65% (56% of 25 bps and 9% of 50 bps).

In addition to pure greed, the street wants rate cuts to avoid the economy slipping into recession.   Here’s why (below):

The market moves from the Federal Reserve’s final rate hike to the last cut.

Pastimes & Incomes

If you spend your days smoking and listening to the radio, you might not be in great financial shape. I spend a lot of time lifting weights and reading, which probably puts me in the lower middle class, according to this report.  

Comments

time to start playing more golf Charles Matt on 2/5/2024 10:18:12 AM

Unfortunately income does have an effect on some activities as some are costly and cannot be done on a regular basis. Frank D on 2/5/2024 1:20:07 PM

Of course....not only should they, they are! You ever see any homeless people out on the golf course with You? Nah! How bout Polo? You ever seen an average working class man on the back of a Polo pony? How about Sailing? Ever seen a beggar own or even crew a sailboat? Didn't think so. Charles A Haselberger on 2/5/2024 2:58:40 PM

At some level almost everything is defined by income Bruce K on 2/7/2024 11:15:24 AM

I had to think about this, pretty much all of mine are. Even hiking, maybe my cheapest hobby, still seems a bit Gucci when I take a look at the gear I use. Peter McDougall on 2/7/2024 11:00:01 PM

A person's income will decide your pastimes. Dow on 2/15/2024 4:09:32 PM

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