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Market Commentary

Jarring News

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/16/2023 12:41 PM

There is lots of economic data out today, but the biggest development may have come from the Walmart (WMT) call. 

Initial jobless claims at 233,000 came in above consensus as did continuing jobless claims, which claimed 18,000 to 1,865,000.  The highest in nearly two years. 

Continuing Jobless Claims

This helps to explain why the University of Michigan Sentiment spiked in “Bad Time to Buy Stuff’ – especially big-ticket items (houses, large household durables and vehicles), which have been surging. 

This morning the National Association of Home builders Housing Market Index swooned to 34 from 40, which is what the street expected for November as well.

But the most jarring news might have come from the Walmart’s earnings call, which warned and said prices could fall in 2024, as shoppers pivot from mere grumbling about higher costs to changing their behavior - shifting to cheaper goods or snapping wallets shut entirely.

The Chief Financial Officer added, “We are more cautious on the consumer than we were 90 days ago.”

So, was deflation on anyone’s BINGO card?

By the way – a couple things to note on deflation. 

(see arrows and red box)

Then, there is the continued freefall in oil prices. 

The market is grappling with the rapidly changing economic narrative.

Maybe the price of OIL drop, will finally give those in power a chance to replenish the SPR beyond the 3M barrels the last time.
Not holding my breath around that.

Terry Dowler on 11/16/2023 2:51:26 PM
Happy Belated Birthday Charles!

John Brzykcy on 11/16/2023 4:38:12 PM
Charles, love your show and watch it often. Recently jumped into bitcoin and so glad to hear from Strike CEO today - had to send you a note of thanks. Also, nice to hear you mention the town where I was born - Butte Montana. Keep up the great work. Thank you for everything you do and everything you are!

Tom Delohery on 11/16/2023 8:48:58 PM

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