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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/17/2023 9:40 AM

Talkin' to myself and feelin' old

Sometimes, I'd like to quit

Nothin' ever seems to fit

Hangin' around

Nothin' to do but frown

Rainy days and Mondays always get me down

-The Carpenters

There have been a ton of great songs about Mondays. To my recollection, they all have been sad tunes of broken hearts and broken promises.

But yesterday was the 15th consecutive Monday that saw the market rally higher. At this rate, someone should write an upbeat song before it's too late.

The composition of the session could be the right mix to spark the next leg higher. Communication Services (XLC), Information Technology (XLK), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led the way. Honestly, these growth sectors will rock until they don’t, and it's been folly to guess otherwise.

Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLM), and Financials (XLF) also must play a dominant role.

I'd like to see Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) rebound, but there is no way they can lead the parade.


Heat Map

Wait, was it St. Paddy’s Day?  Yesterday was an actual party session.

S&P 500 Map

The S&P 500 is bunched up in front of its 200-day moving average. This could be a monumental breakout.


Wake Up, Russell

Is it small-cap season? The Russell 2000 has been a train wreck, this may be a turning point.


The Russell 2000 was the best-performing large indices yesterday when it bounced off a solid base. I will need to see a lot more before kicking the tires.


Economic Calendar

Lots of economic data is coming out, joining week two of earnings season.

Today’s Session

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Retail sales came in better than expected and the knee jerk reaction was bond yields soared and stocks stumbled.  The former is the more dramatic reaction and the focus of investors.

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Autos drove the data as several categories declined sharply from a year ago.

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Watch that ten-year bond yield taking out 4.90%, which would be huge; although, 5.0% is the psychological point that sends more to sidelines.



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