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Afternoon Note

Jobs Preview

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/5/2023 1:23 PM

One of the most brilliant young economist on the street, Eric Basmajian, points out that the initial claims continue improving while continued claims continue to worsen. He posted a chart that looks at the non-seasonal data vs. 2018/2019 to remove all the distortionary effects.

His conclusion is there is not many layoffs, but people who do lose a job are having a hard time finding a new one.

Moreover, initial jobless claims are not in recession territory but continuing claims are flashing recession signs – big time.

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Remember, the Fed is more interested in participation and wages than the overall number. This is why weak JOLTS hiring and quits is a positive signal. 

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Meanwhile, there has been a sharp drop off in Christmas and seasonal job advertising.

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This underscores the importance of the labor basket. Total non-farm payroll growth is slowing, and today the level is where recessions begin (see arrow). But private sector payroll (circle) growth is already below recession levels.

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And everyone will be watching for the unprecedented string of downward revisions.

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By the way, while the official consensus for tomorrow is 170,000 jobs, the whisper number edged up to 187,000 after the initial jobless claims release.

So, it is very confusing, but a miss would be an even bigger surprise resulting in a monster relief rally.  Conversely, a “better than expected” number means a one percent + pullback.


Hello Charles. Do any of these reports take into account the 7 million plus folks that have entered the country? I think the employment situation is worse than the data is showing. And the Government just keeps on spending.

P Krueger on 10/5/2023 1:33:18 PM

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