Remember when bad news was good news? Well, this morning, stocks, which were already under pressure, fell even more after a bunch of economic data was released. None of it was good news.
Consumer Confidence came in at 103 against the consensus of 105.5, and down from 106.1. The Expectations is on the cusp of falling through a trapdoor.
August New Home sales were 8.7% to an annualized rate of 675,000, far blow the consensus of 698,000. The median price of $430,000 is slightly lower than July but down considerably from $496,000 last October.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey did come in better-than-expected, climbing into the plus column after 16 straight months of negative prints.
But the report clearly stated: firms were not much more optimistic about local business conditions.
A couple days ago, JP Morgan Strategist, Marko Kolanovic, said sticky inflation and a need for sustained restrictive policy stance will compress profit margins and bring an end to the expansion.
I think it’s a fancy way to say the fed is causing a recession.
Here’s the rub, if the Fed stays the course, they will not only cause a recession, but make it deeper than it needs to be.
The good news is, the CME FedWatch is not showing a rate hike in November, and we will get more signs before then that it would be a huge mistake.
For now, we must hold on as the market has its typical Fed tantrum. It’s annoying, but it shouldn’t last much longer.
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