Morning Commentary
A monster session yesterday for Technology. Just an emphatic statement against the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. And in many ways, this is just the beginning and we know this ride will be wild, so check your emotions at the door.
Growth continues to dominate value.
Selective
The selectiveness of this rally is maddening. It would be too simple to say it’s bifurcated because the winners are so much more than the decliners.
Moreover, the lack of coattails in the hottest stocks is clear. Take a look at all these NASDAQ-listed names leading the charge yesterday and then take a look at new highs versus new lows.
There is no halo-effect.
The advancers might bring along a few rival stocks, but not the entire industry, sector and oversold broad market.
Portfolio Approach
We added a new position in Technology yesterday to our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
Lots of economic data out this morning, and here’s the gist- the street now sees a rate hike at the next FOMC gathering.
A week ago, there was the thought to be a 17% chance of rate hike, but now it’s 57% chance.
PCE data for the most part was hotter than expected. Headline April PCE of 4.4% is much higher than consensus of 3.9% and above March read of 4.2%
Personal Income & Spending
Income came in as expected, but spending was hotter.
Consumer spending +0.8% consensus +0.5%.
Bond yields are reacting, but stocks are holding up; although, with little conviction.
Tweet |
7/15/2025 1:35 PM | Semis Rise & Banks Slide |
7/15/2025 10:13 AM | THE CURIOUS CASE |
7/14/2025 1:32 PM | Decisive Week |
7/14/2025 9:32 AM | GET READY! |
7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
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