Morning Commentary
A monster session yesterday for Technology. Just an emphatic statement against the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. And in many ways, this is just the beginning and we know this ride will be wild, so check your emotions at the door.
Growth continues to dominate value.
Selective
The selectiveness of this rally is maddening. It would be too simple to say it’s bifurcated because the winners are so much more than the decliners.
Moreover, the lack of coattails in the hottest stocks is clear. Take a look at all these NASDAQ-listed names leading the charge yesterday and then take a look at new highs versus new lows.
There is no halo-effect.
The advancers might bring along a few rival stocks, but not the entire industry, sector and oversold broad market.
Portfolio Approach
We added a new position in Technology yesterday to our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
Lots of economic data out this morning, and here’s the gist- the street now sees a rate hike at the next FOMC gathering.
A week ago, there was the thought to be a 17% chance of rate hike, but now it’s 57% chance.
PCE data for the most part was hotter than expected. Headline April PCE of 4.4% is much higher than consensus of 3.9% and above March read of 4.2%
Personal Income & Spending
Income came in as expected, but spending was hotter.
Consumer spending +0.8% consensus +0.5%.
Bond yields are reacting, but stocks are holding up; although, with little conviction.
Tweet |
9/18/2025 1:23 PM | Rate Cut Rally |
9/18/2025 9:48 AM | Risk Management Cut |
9/17/2025 1:33 PM | Fed on Deck |
9/17/2025 9:43 AM | Champing at the Bit |
9/16/2025 1:33 PM | All Eyes on the FOMC Meeting |
9/16/2025 10:05 AM | Growth Leads the Way |
9/15/2025 1:36 PM | Solid Rally |
9/15/2025 9:50 AM | It's Still Tech As We Await the Fed |
9/12/2025 1:28 PM | Mega-Caps Move Higher |
9/12/2025 9:32 AM | JAILBREAK |
9/11/2025 1:39 PM | Rally Continues |
9/11/2025 10:08 AM | All AI All the Time |
9/10/2025 1:55 PM | The Oracle Effect |
9/10/2025 9:50 AM | PARTY IN WHOVILLE |
9/9/2025 1:50 PM | Sharp BLS Revision |
9/9/2025 9:48 AM | Tech & Large Cap Safety |
9/8/2025 1:29 PM | Technology Leads Again |
9/8/2025 9:34 AM | FOREBODING |
9/5/2025 1:29 PM | Jobs Data Digest |
9/5/2025 9:55 AM | JOBS DAY (BUCKLE UP) |
9/4/2025 1:07 PM | Stocks Rise and Yields Sink |
9/4/2025 9:45 AM | MOSTLY BLAND |
9/3/2025 1:48 PM | Big Tech Rebounds |
9/3/2025 9:41 AM | NOT AN EMOTIONAL RELEASE (YET) |
9/2/2025 1:37 PM | Gloomy Start |
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