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Afternoon Note

Consumer Skittish

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/12/2023 1:27 PM

The market popped, but then immediately began losing altitude, which is what we were expecting.  But I have to admit, even with the evidence that consumers are becoming more skittish, I was surprised at just how much anxiety has built up.

The results missed the market by a mile.

University of Michigan

Consumer Sentiment

Actual

Consensus

Prior

Sentiment

57.7

63.0

63.5

Current Conditions

64.5

67.5

68.2

Expectations

53.4

60.8

60.5

1 Yr. Inflation

4.5%

4.4%

4.6%

5-10 yrs. Inflation

3.2%

2.9%

3.0%

 

The worrisome aspect of this is the year ahead outlook.  Ouch.  People have lost so much faith that even with seeing the economy “plummet,” they see inflation edging higher.

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There was a time a year ago when a big jump in inflation expectations from this report got Jay Powell to move ahead with the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle ever. That’s just one of the reasons the market is recoiling on the news.

Interestingly, this is a reason the Fed would be ready to pause.

It might be surprising that Consumer Discretionary is the hardest hit sector in the market today.

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Have a great weekend.


 

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