Morning Commentary
After watching people slap the hell out of each other (it has become a major sport), I’m wracking my brain on how I can turn these wild market gyrations into an amusement park ride. I’d call it ‘Extreme Fear’ or maybe ‘Extreme Fear Mongering.’ Still, five sectors edged into the plus column yesterday ahead of the closing bell.
Heat Map
Large-cap Technology (XLK) continues its remarkable ride in 2023 – picking the right moment to continue to defy conventional wisdom. So, stop trying to bury mega-caps; they aren’t dead yet.
By the way, rate hikes aren’t dead yet, either. The Street sees two additional 25-basis points (bps) hikes followed by a rapid series of rate cuts. That means the lag is gaining momentum, and before summer officially gets underway, Powell will pause and begin beating a hasty retreat.
Gold miners were the best-performing industry, but Internet continues its remarkable rally. The move in water is interesting as well.
Mega-Cap Picks Up Steam
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has significantly outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). ,The chart looks great (cup and handle formation) and there could be much more upside.
The S&P Technology Sector (XLK) has held up above key moving averages and makes a major breakout with a close above 144.
Portfolio Approach
We continue to keep our Current Buys suspended this morning.
Today’s Session
The European Central Bank has hiked rates by 50bps this morning, as they promised. The street was hoping for no rate hike, which would have added more pressure on the Federal Reserve. The press conference starts soon.
Lots of data out this morning, but the hit to Philly Fed stands out. 23.2 consensus -14.7.
Prices are coming down significantly.
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7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
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