Morning Commentary
Buyers continue to emerge even, as the narrative is the market is going down. The S&P 500 came off of its best week in a month.
We saw a broad-based rally on Friday led by Technology, Consumer Discretionary & Communication Services. For the year, Utilities continue to struggle, while Consumer Staples are almost muted.
Growth outperformed value for more than a decade going into 2022, when value finally leaped and crushed it. Interestingly, value has a significant lead over growth going back fifty years, but that changed in the era of mega- cap stocks.
The experts told us mega- cap names would never rule again, but that has not been the case this year.
Big box retailers may have run out of room to keep raising prices, and drug markets took a shot at finishing lower on the week.
Meanwhile, the Volatility Index (VIX) fell below support this week, there isn’t a lot of genuine fear out there.
Economic Calendar
In the next 13 trading sessions, there will be four major events that will be key catalysts for the market. This week, it all starts tomorrow with Fed Chair Powell delivering his two-day biannual monetary policy testimony on Capitol hill and the key non-farm payroll on Friday.
This is going to be a big week – stay tuned.
Portfolio Approach
We added a new technology position last Friday afternoon in the Hotline model portfolio.
Today’s Session
Futures are muted in this busy week with little direction. Notable, the 10-year note continues to decline – from Friday’s large decline.
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7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
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7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
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