Morning Commentary
The half-day session on Friday saw the market eke out a slim gain with the same cautious theme. Cyclical stocks led the way as growth stocks struggled, and Energy (XLE) continues to resist being pulled down by crude oil.
It’s hard to believe, but West Intermediate (WTI) closed at the lowest level for 2022.
Heat Map
Oil stocks exhibiting resolved vis-a-vis crude prices; those larger mega-cap names cannot gain any traction.
The good news is professional investors are very reluctant to buy low, which means those positioned properly ahead of them will reap the rewards.
Before we get to more core long-term positioning, we must know this isn’t just another bear market bounce.
Part of answering that question will be leadership from several niches in the market, including semiconductors.
The sector is breaking out but still in a huge down channel – but we are spying closely.
Portfolio Approach
There are no sector weighting changes in our Hotline Model Portfolio this morning.
Today’s Session
The China Covid-19 Lockdown story is dominating the market early this morning. Mass protests are breaking out everywhere. This could be a seminal moment for China and the cause of freedom. Sadly, the establishment in the United States has already displayed its willingness to overlook the human cost when it comes to protecting bottom lines.
President for Life
Dictators seem to always be on never-ending missions of universal suffering as both a way to hold people down and also as a reminder they can hold people down. President Xi is a dictator and unleashing pain and wreaking havoc.
Back in the United States, it’s all about the data and the Fed this week. The calendar is stacked with eventual releases, but I would rank Jay Powell’s comments on Wednesday at the top, followed by core PCE, jobs report, and JOLTs report.
Monday
Time |
Release |
Period |
Cons |
Prior |
10:30 |
Dallas Fed Manufacturing |
November |
-23.0 |
-19.4 |
12:00 |
John Williams (NY FED) speaks Economic Club |
|
|
|
Tuesday
Time |
Release |
Period |
Cons |
Prior |
9:00 |
FHFA House Price Index |
September |
-1.3% |
-0.7% |
9:00 |
Core Logic 20-city NSA |
September |
10.5% |
13.0% |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
November |
100 |
102.5 |
Wednesday
Time |
Release |
Period |
Cons |
Prior |
8:15 |
ADP Employment Report |
November |
200K |
239K |
8:30 |
Wholesale Inventories |
October (P) |
|
0.60 |
8:30 |
GDP |
3Q22 (2nd) |
2.8% |
2.6% |
9:45 |
MNI Chicago PMI |
November |
47.1 |
45.2 |
10:00 |
JOLTs |
October |
10.03m |
10.07m |
1:30 |
Jay Powell Brookings |
|
|
|
Thursday
Time |
Release |
Period |
Cons |
Prior |
7:30 |
Challenger Gray & Christmas |
November |
200K |
48.3% |
8:30 |
Personal Income |
October |
0.4% |
0.4% |
8:30 |
PCE Core Deflator |
October |
5.0% |
5.1% |
9:25 |
Fed’s Logan |
|
|
|
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing |
November |
50.0 |
50.2 |
1:30 |
Jay Powell Brookings |
|
|
|
Friday
Time |
Release |
Period |
Cons |
Prior |
8:30 |
Non-Farm Payrolls |
November |
200K |
261K |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate (U3) |
November |
3.8% |
3.7% |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Wages |
November |
4.6% |
4.7% |
8:30 |
Labor Force Participation |
November |
62.3% |
62.2% |
10:15 |
Fed’s Evans |
|
|
|
In the end, it’s all about inflation coming down and the Fed not wrecking the economy too much.
Tweet |
3/31/2023 1:37 PM | Leaving the Station |
3/31/2023 9:37 AM | BRACING FOR INFLATION |
3/30/2023 1:54 PM | Losing Some Steam |
3/30/2023 9:36 AM | A FUNNY WAY OF BEING AFRAID |
3/29/2023 1:37 PM | Bottom Fishers |
3/29/2023 9:41 AM | TOO CALM AND COMPLACENT? |
3/28/2023 1:31 PM | No Fireworks |
3/28/2023 9:47 AM | TIME MACHINE RALLY |
3/27/2023 1:34 PM | Holding Pattern |
3/27/2023 9:59 AM | SUDDENLY, BULLISH IS WHERE IT’S AT |
3/24/2023 1:25 PM | Magical |
3/24/2023 10:14 AM | YELLEN’S TWO-STEP TRIPS UP THE MARKET |
3/23/2023 1:14 PM | Embarrassing Snafu |
3/23/2023 9:37 AM | GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS PROTESTING TOO MUCH |
3/22/2023 1:23 PM | All Quiet |
3/22/2023 9:42 AM | THE MOMENT OF TRUTH #1,309 |
3/21/2023 1:12 PM | Lots of Questions |
3/21/2023 9:49 AM | WHAT’S INSIDE POWELL’S CRYSTAL BALL? |
3/20/2023 1:58 PM | All Over the Place |
3/20/2023 9:36 AM | FED COUNTDOWN BEGINS |
3/17/2023 1:45 PM | Banks Remain Vulnerable |
3/17/2023 9:54 AM | FED VS THE FED (IT’S COMPLICATED) |
3/16/2023 1:27 PM | Another Crazy Day |
3/16/2023 9:53 AM | THRILL RIDE |
3/15/2023 1:43 PM | Economic Data Overshadowed |
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