It's typically a great day for the market, which has rocked on Fed days only to succumb to big moves lower afterwards.
The message is clear- Wall Street wants to believe the Fed is nearing a completion of its mission, which would initially manifest itself with small rate hike, then no rate hikes, and eventually cuts.
Fed decision-day performance:
January 26, 2022, it maintained the rate: S&P -0.15%
The timeline for this takes us at least through the rest of the year and some think up to 2024.
But all of this is on paper - it's a good script, but it will change, and probably change dramatically, with a couple noticeable dips in the rate of inflation- and that's the real key for investors.
Inflation doesn't have to be low; it just needs to drift lower to get the stock market to trade higher.
The Fed is also updating its Summary of Economic Projections - so there is a lot to chew on...grab your popcorn.
|Anybody who thinks the Fed is nearing "completion" must be delusional. Rates will be going higher for longer than most of you think. The Genie (inflation) is out of the bottle, the Toothpaste is out of the tube....You get it. It's going to take a long, long time to get inflation back to a 2% "Target." The only way this ends sooner is if the Fed. capitulates, they throw in the towel, they give up on achieving their stated "Target." Then, as a country....we're really in for some tough times. And for those of you who think...This guy's really a permabear....You're entirely wrong. I am a true believer in the stock market and Capitalism. But my investing horizon is decades, generations. I've lived this cycle over and over. This is merely one more cycle in the unending series of cycles. I'm a buyer, not a seller in this market.|
Charles Haselberger on 9/21/2022 1:06:59 PM
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