Devil and the deep blue sea behind me

Vanish in the air you'll never find me

I will turn your face to alabaster

When you'll find your servant is your master

‘Wrap Around Your Finger’

Sting

For a split moment yesterday, I could imagine the faces of everyone at the Federal Reserve. Especially those on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) turning to alabaster when the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials briefly lurched into the plus column. The frustration must have been more acute for the Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who voiced approval at Friday’s drubbing.

Something known as ‘zeal of the convert’ applies mainly to converts to a different religion, but it is also discussed in psychology. First, Kashkari was a noted dove, but he’s now a ferocious bear willing to jawbone the market into submission. Yesterday, more chatter and the Wall Street echo chamber nudged expectations for a 75-basis points (bps) to 72.5%. But the 2023 consensus is for no rate hikes, and that’s where the zealots are taking their battle next.

Heat Map

Only two sectors finished in the green: Energy (XLE) and Utilities (XLU). The rest endured minor declines.

There were some pockets of green with some Health Care (XLV), Industrials (XLI), and Consumer names higher.

FANG with Biggest Bite

Yesterday, Diamondback Petroleum (symbol: FANG) was the number one percentage gainer in the S&P 500, leading the XLE sector, which is turning white hot again. 

Many investors are bailing out of the FANG acronym (Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) & Google (GOOG)) for oil companies. In fact, the performance this year is in stark contrast and probably widens.

Key Chart

The moment of truth is coming up. After hitting the 200-day moving average like a brick wall, the S&P 500 is rapidly barreling toward its 50-day moving average.

It’s a huge test.

Dream Job

It’s the question every child will hear over and over. But then, when they are too young to understand, a parent might interrupt and say, “Johnny has a hell of a grip. I think he’s going to be a goalie.”

From there, the answer is refined based on a child’s interest. For example, in elementary school, I wanted to be an astronaut like many children in the era of a man landing on the moon.

Later, I wanted to be a CEO after I began to work a hustle to help my mother. I discovered capitalism and loved it not just because of the financial rewards for me, but I dreamed of owning factories to help others.

But something has gone wrong with these age-old questions.

There has been an assault, including endless articles like this one in the NY Times a couple of years ago: titled: Stop Asking Kids What They Want to Be When They Grow Up -The question forces children to define themselves in terms of work.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/smarter-living/

It’s interesting that in this era of allowing children to define so many things about themselves that anyone would be opposed to asking them about a dream job or a profession. 

I must admit this hurts me. I want young people daydreaming about moon shots and unknown discoveries. Asking a child about their dream job shouldn’t be off-limits.

These days, the top-rated jobs by Generation X are shocking. For Boomers, its president, followed by a chief executive officer.

For Gen Z, it’s a corporate recruiter. Say what?

When I asked some of the younger folks on my team this morning, they said, it’s about being practical.

The list is practical, to be sure, but what happened to adventure, risk-taking, aiming for the stars, and settling for the moon?

I will say, however, that I understand why 'attorney' dropped off the list.

Portfolio Approach

There are no changes in the Hotline model portfolio.

Today’s Session

The lady doth protest too much, methinks

Equity futures easing into the open after popping overnight in what can only be described as a slap in the face of the Federal Reserve.  And the new pit bull at the Fed is flawing to get people to believe monetary policy is going to be tough.

The main problem is Neel Kashkari, spending so much time defending his own words. It just makes me wonder if there is more bark than bite at the Powell Fed.

After saying he was happy with Friday’s market rout, twitter when viral with posts saying the MN Fed President was delighted with the rout.  Kashkari felt compelled to set the record straight.

Here’s the rub: there isn’t much difference between happy and delighted for most folks.

Delighted Adjective Feeling or showing great pleasure.

Happy Adjective Feeling or showing pleasure or contentment.

 

The fact that the most hawkish Fed member is splitting hair over language makes me wonder what happens when job losses mount and inflation is still too high. 

Will any member of the Fed exclaim happiness or delight?

Right now, the stock market, bond market and other market gauges think the Fed will blink when there is blood in the streets.

All eyes on the JOLTs report later this morning.

 

 

Comments

If you aim for nothing, you'll hit it every time (Zig Ziglar). Of course kids should be asked about their goals and dreams to broaden their horizon and foster inquisitiveness about the world around them. Further, with the chaos in the adult job market, even adults of all ages should reflect and ask themselves about their goals and what their highest/best use professionally should be. Milton Evans on 8/30/2022 10:09:26 AM

“Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.” – Harriet Tubman Chase Rief on 8/30/2022 10:27:29 AM

When I was a freshman or sophomore in high school a recruiter from a well known technical institute made a home visit to interview me to see if I had the "right stuff" to attend their school. I guess he hadn't done his homework because my math and science grades were nothing to brag about. The key question he asked me during the interview was "Are you a dreamer or a doer?" Clearly he thought the correct answer was the latter but when I answered that I was both he had this look of confusion and asked me to explain. I answered that I liked to do the things I dream about. I found out later that my Dad thought that was a great answer. Bob Cayia on 8/30/2022 11:13:18 AM

Accomplishing things in life does define you. We are all proud of our careers and how hard we worked to be successful. Why not define yourself by your job, your accomplishments. It builds confidence which is what all parents should want for their children. Children should know that they can accomplish anything they set their minds to. Parents should support and encourage their dreams. Debby Deering on 8/30/2022 11:21:49 AM

Perhaps a better question would be "What sort of things do you like or enjoy doing the most?". It might make for a more informed career search. Great short read - The Dream Manager. Paul Krueger on 8/30/2022 12:42:05 PM

After teaching elementary school for 35 years, that's what helps to move and motivate children through school. Many kids come with their dreams already intact and ready to go, but some need others to inspire them to attempt to search and exceed what they haven't yet dreamed of, those are the parents, friends, teachers, pastors, etc. Our children, all of them need to be encouraged to excell! Lorin Kenfield on 8/30/2022 2:00:12 PM

No! Ashley on 8/30/2022 2:56:29 PM

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