Well, it’s the day investors have been waiting for. Fed Chair Powell is schedule to speak at 10am.  And there is lots of data out this morning to add to the Fed’s calculations.

Inflation fell slightly in July, the first time in two years, as prices at the pump eased. That same decline helped consumer spending tick slightly higher.

The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States declined by 0.1% in July from June’s 1% gain.  Prices for goods declined 0.4%, while prices for services rose 0.1%.

• Food prices +1.3%
• Energy cost -4.8%.

Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose 0.1%. The annual rate declined to 6.3% in July coming off the highest read since January 1982 in June of 6.8% in June.

Personal income rose 0.2% or $47.0 billion, in July due in large part to an increase in wages. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose 0.1% or $23.7 billion. The personal saving rate as a percentage of disposable personal income was flat in July at 5%.

The US goods trade deficit declined to $89.1 billion in July from $98.6 billion in June. Exports declined 0.2% from June to $147.3 billion, due in part to a decline of 2.3% in sales of industrial supplies and a decrease of 3.4% in consumer goods.

Imports also declined by 3.5% to $234 billion, as purchases of industrial supplies purchases dipped -2.9%, which was offset by a 0.5 increase in imports of capital goods.

Portfolio Approach

We added back positions to our Current Buy list yesterday in our Hotline Model Portfolio.

Markets are mixed ahead of the highly anticipated Powell speech in Jackson Hole.  So far, the Fed speakers have said nothing more than what the market is already telling. Let’s see if Powell’s tone is in any way different.