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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/5/2022 9:37 AM


Overcome with anger; extremely indignant.

It was another good session yesterday that had the bears bewildered ,but Federal Reserve officials were apoplectic. Really? It is amazing how upset these folks are that the stock market is moving higher. Of course, the true source of their ire is the wayward comments from Jay Powell, who went off script and declared the neutral rate was achieved. The Fed chairman gave investors hope, and they are not giving it back.

Although Ben Bernanke looked more like Papa Smurf, investors are riding Powell’s words like the wise old blue sage (a.k.a. Papa Smurf) born on June 15, 1465. So, for now, the rest of the gang will just have to rally at the top of their lungs about how misguided the stock bounce has become.   It’s a good thing these folks stopped trading the market or I would suspect they were short or loaded up with puts.

A recession is in the cards, according to the 10-2-year yield curve, which means Fed officials may be fixated on beating down inflation when a recession might already be the main problem. 

Heat Map

There were a lot of waves, but they were small as you could feel the tension. Buyers continued to flock to growth and abandon Energy (XLE). Investors also continue to get out of defensive names, as many sense it’s time to make big money if this market takes off. I have to admit the selloff in crude oil is more intense than I could have imagined, and I think it’s directly tied to recession talk and less demand. 

Today is all about the jobs report, which the White House says will come in at 150,000, even though the consensus is 250,000, and Morgan Stanley (MS) moved to 300,000 yesterday. 

Buckle up, Boys and Girls!

Portfolio Approach

We added a new position in Energy yesterday afternoon in our Hotline Model Portfolio. If you are not a member of our premium Hotline service, email Info@wstreet.com to join today. 

Today’s Session

The jobs report was much stronger than consensus, and wages climbed more than consensus; although, still significantly below the rate of inflation.

I’m still confused why labor participation keeps slipping.

Market Reaction

It’s early, but it’s intriguing the initial knee-jerk reaction is mooted. But selling could trigger additional selling.


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