Morning Commentary
Once again, it was growth, especially in the comfort food of those trillion-dollar companies, that led the way while those hedging opted for defensive names. As a result, market breadth was bullish while volume tempered.
S&P 500 Index |
+0.03% |
|
Communication Services XLC |
+0.50% |
|
Consumer Discretionary XLY |
-0.01% |
|
Consumer Staples XLP |
+0.53% |
|
Energy XLE |
-1.47% |
|
Financials XLF |
-0.57% |
|
Health Care XLV |
+0.03% |
|
Industrials XLI |
-0.38% |
|
Materials XLB |
-0.26% |
|
Real Estate XLRE |
+1.72% |
|
Technology XLK |
+0.03% |
|
Utilities XLU |
+1.31% |
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancing |
2,055 |
2,578 |
Declining |
1,259 |
1,832 |
52 Week High |
186 |
194 |
52 Week Low |
19 |
52 |
Up Volume |
2.11B |
2.48B |
Down Volume |
1.73 |
1.63B |
Less Fear but Far from Exuberant
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is edging higher but far from exuberant.
Today, we will get the latest on retail investors sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAll). The last reading became more cautious weeks ago when the market was tensing up ahead of the Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech.
I find it amazing that the Main Street sentiment (both as consumers and investors) remains in check -even overly cautious when the market is in rally mode to this degree, and home prices are rising at their fastest pace ever.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI ) climbed to 59.9 from 59.5, against the consensus estimate of 58.6.
Highlights:
INDEX |
Aug Index |
Jul Index |
% Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend* (months) |
Manufacturing PMI® |
59.9 |
59.5 |
+0.4 |
Growing |
Faster |
15 |
New Orders |
66.7 |
64.9 |
+1.8 |
Growing |
Faster |
15 |
Production |
60.0 |
58.4 |
+1.6 |
Growing |
Faster |
15 |
Employment |
49.0 |
52.9 |
-3.9 |
Contracting |
From Growing |
1 |
Supplier Deliveries |
69.5 |
72.5 |
-3.0 |
Slowing |
Slower |
66 |
Inventories |
54.2 |
48.9 |
+5.3 |
Growing |
From Contracting |
1 |
Customers’ Inventories |
30.2 |
25.0 |
+5.2 |
Too Low |
Slower |
59 |
Prices |
79.4 |
85.7 |
-6.3 |
Increasing |
Slower |
15 |
Backlog of Orders |
68.2 |
65.0 |
+3.2 |
Growing |
Faster |
14 |
New Export Orders |
56.6 |
55.7 |
+0.9 |
Growing |
Faster |
14 |
Imports |
54.3 |
53.7 |
+0.6 |
Growing |
Faster |
14 |
Overall Economy |
|
|
|
Growing |
Faster |
15 |
Manufacturing Sector |
|
|
|
Growing |
Faster |
15 |
The bad news is employment is shifting to contraction from expansion, decreasing to the lowest level since November 2020. Workers are in control and seeking better wages.
Seven industries reported employment growth for August:
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Seven industries reported a decrease in employment for August:
Textile Mills; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 2021 |
20.3 |
58.2 |
21.5 |
-1.2 |
49.0 |
Jul 2021 |
26.1 |
57.8 |
16.0 |
+10.1 |
52.9 |
EMPLOYMENT
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 49 percent in August, 3.9 percentage points below the July reading of 52.9 percent. “The Employment Index returned to contraction territory after one month above 50 percent. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded. Strong new-order levels, low customers’ inventories and expanding backlogs belied the reduction in employment strength. Survey panelists’ companies are still struggling to meet labor-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months: An overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire, with about 35 percent of comments — a decrease from previous months — expressing difficulty in filling positions. A significant number of panelists note increasing employee-turnover rates, continuing a trend evident in the comments in July,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the seven reporting employment growth in August — in the following order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in August — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 2021 |
20.3 |
58.2 |
21.5 |
-1.2 |
49.0 |
Jul 2021 |
26.1 |
57.8 |
16.0 |
+10.1 |
52.9 |
Jun 2021 |
26.6 |
54.1 |
19.3 |
+7.3 |
49.9 |
May 2021 |
20.8 |
61.1 |
18.0 |
+2.8 |
50.9 |
Portfolio Approach
We added to Consumer Staples yesterday in our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
Initial jobless claims came in at 340,000 just five thousand better than consensus and continuing also squeaked past consensus, but the total number of folks getting some kind of unemployment assistance actually edged higher, driven by pandemic insurance. PAU +408,485 and PEUC +6,044.
Auto Sales
It’s no surprise US new auto sales are slumping, in large part to a lack of inventory. August saw the fourth consecutive decline in sales -11.5% from July to 13.06 million SAAR (lowest since June 2020).
Ford (F) just announced its sales -33.1%.
The chip situation is frustrating, but lots of autos have sold in the past year bringing the debt to $1.5 trillion and there’s still demand.
Tweet |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
6/13/2025 1:30 PM | Showing Resilience |
6/13/2025 9:37 AM | THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE |
6/12/2025 1:27 PM | Interest Rates in Focus |
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