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Afternoon Note

Angst Ahead of Senate Runoff

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/4/2021 1:47 PM

The market is under a lot of pressure today, and to the point where, selling is triggering additional selling.  The primary source of angst is tomorrow’s Senate runoff races in Georgia.  We woke to discover Democrat Ossoff had overtaken Republican Perdue in the betting markets. 

Still, the broad market opened higher with each major index touching new record levels.

That said, there was never conviction this morning, and more than likely, the call of a 6 to 10% correction from a potential Democrat victory nudged indecisive investors.  No sector has gone unscathed, although, Materials held up the longest.

I have written and discussed this often leading up to this moment.  I think there would be a wider market sell-off if Democrats win both elections.  Despite a series of Republican mistakes, I think voters will choose divided government to match out divided nation.

If that is not the case, it changes some parts of my investment thesis. But overall, there will be chances to make money in the stock market.  Heck, with potentially trillions in government spending, there are some industries licking their chops.

Hence, why Materials were in the green for most of the morning.

S&P 500 Index

-2.15%

Communication Services XLC

-2.27%

Consumer Discretionary XLY

-1.65%

Consumer Staples XLP

-2.05%

Energy XLE

-0.36%

Financials XLF

-1.93%

Health Care XLV

-1.67%

Industrials XLI

-2.60%

Materials XLB

-1.15%

Real Estate XLRE

-2.98%

Technology XLK

-2.31%

Utilities XLU

-2.25%

 

Technical View

The market is up so much, and all the major equity indices are well-above their key moving averages.  The 50-day for the S&P 500 is 3,593, which is a fair bit lower.

S&P 500

The bond market isn’t signally panic as rates continue to move sideways.

10-Year Treasury

PS: I do not think Energy would be higher if the market really thought Republicans are going to be swept.


Comments
Iím a small cap investor. Where do you see the small caps going in the first Qtr and the whole of Ď21?
Read you every day - thanks for your excellent market evaluation.

Mike Avery

Mike avery on 1/4/2021 2:39:59 PM
With so many traveling and close during the Thanksgiving to Christmas holidays, I expect big oil stocks to go down based on lower demand and later rally come May. Thanks

JOHN D'AMELIO on 1/4/2021 2:56:58 PM
I hope we can at least split in Ga. to
keep some control on our way of life.

joseph colamartino on 1/4/2021 3:07:28 PM
 

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