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Afternoon Note

Sentiment Dips But Not The Market

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/13/2020 1:28 PM

The preliminary read of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for November decreased to 77.0 versus expectations for 82, and below October’s read of 81.8.  Survey results showed that Americans were uncertain about the presidential election and worried about the resurgence in Covid19 cases.  This was the lowest reading since August. 

Interviews conducted after the election recorded a substantial negative shift in the Expectations Index among Republicans. There was no increase in expectations among Democrats, as economic gains expectations were likely offset by the spike in coronavirus cases.  According to the survey, “59% of Democrats reported that their normal life had changed to a great extent due to the coronavirus compared with just 34% among Republicans. The gap in expectations closed somewhat due to the coronavirus and the partisan shift in expectations that began well before the election. Note that Republicans now voice the least favorable economic expectations since Trump took office, and Democrats have voiced more positive expectations.”

Survey

Nov 2020

Oct 2020

Y-Y Change

Index of Consumer Sentiment

77.0

81.8

-20.5%

Current Economic Conditions

85.8

85.9

-23.1%

Index of Consumer Expectations

71.3

79.2

-18.3%

Despite the sentiment downturn, the major indices are all in the green, and it’s risk on again for travel related stocks.  The Dow is up 1.1%, the S&P 500 up 1% and the Nasdaq +0.7%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors are in the green with Energy outperforming despite WTI trading down 2% to $40.20 per barrel.  Near term demand worries are pressuring the commodity. Technology is the laggard this session, and many of the stay-at-home stocks are under pressure again.  

S&P 500 Index

+0.99%

Communication Services XLC

+0.97%

Consumer Discretionary XLY

+1.10%

Consumer Staples XLP

+0.56%

Energy XLE

+2.89%

Financials XLF

+1.13%

Health Care XLV

+0.93%

Industrials XLI

+1.62%

Materials XLB

+1.22%

Real Estate XLRE

+1.28%

Technology XLK

+0.38%

Utilities XLU

+0.73%

 

Breadth is decidedly positive today, advancers far outpace decliners, and there are substantially more new highs than new lows.

Have a great weekend.  Be well and stay safe.

 


Comments
Hi Charles, wow things are happening so fast & don't last. You would think that the good vaccine news would last longer than a day.
I have a question that may be a teaching moment: In the excitement I bought PFE. The timing of the release of news (right after the election?????) & learning that the CEO dumped 65% the same day the news broke smelled very fishy. Turned my stomach. I sold in disgust at a loss. In hindsight, my purchase & sale were based on emotion only. I learned a big lesson.


Diane on 11/15/2020 7:53:32 AM
Charles PAYNE, its November 15th, 2020.
We wanted to WISH YOU A HAPPY BIRTHDAY CHARLES PAYNE.
Thank you sir for your help, support, and God given talent for exceptional opportunities to those of your FANS, dirtyfingernails jobs workers, tradesmen, VETERANS, and other USA citizens.
We pray that God blesses you, your wife and family.
May President Trump expose ALL THIS " Most EXTENSIVE voter fraud in HISTORY " Joe BIDENS own quoted words, played from LOU DOBBS FBN.
Always your fans, and forever thankful for your purpose in help, facts, truth and inspiration for ALL TO TRY , & SUCCEED . It is the American dream, and freedom of SPEECH, capitalism, and this republic that allows us ALL the ability to be what we want, only socialism and communism oppression can End that.

J 11/15/2020
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
CHARLES PAYNE FBN.

J on 11/15/2020 7:24:15 PM
Thank you so much.  I really appreciate your kind words and reaching out.  CP

Charles Payne on 11/15/2020 9:19:01 PM
 

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