Pfizer and its partner BioNTech are closer to releasing its Covid-19 vaccine after the results from its trial showed it to be more than 90%effective, and it has moved closer to being approved. When it becomes available, will you take it (or other approved vaccine)?
Morning Commentary
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/9/2020 9:41 AM
This morning equities were looking higher in large part to the notion of divided government and election resolution, although President Trump is pursuing legal remedies. It’s clear the stock market thinks the election is over and the GOP will retain control of the Senate.
Then came news from Pfizer (PFE) that their Covid19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective and ready for prime time, as the company plans to file for emergency FDA approval later this month.
- 44,000-person trial
- 94 Covid19 cases
- 9 or fewer of positive cases received two shots of vaccine
An interesting, but prevalent sidebar is President-elect Biden was prepping his Covid19 team and leaning toward stricter restrictions. His initial statement over the Pfizer news was less sanguine than I would have thought for a vaccine that helps 90% of users.
Vaccine Winners
- UAL
- AAL
- DAL
- JBLU
- LUV
- RCL
- CCL
- Crude Oil
Vaccine Losers
- ZM
- PTON
- NFLX
- TDOC
- DOCU
Note: the challenge for investors is to know which of today’s winners can keep moving higher and which of the losers could become oversold. I still think you have to trade the names on both lists.
There are a lot of tech names that are not pure stay and home names but might get hit hard at the start of trading. I will be looking deeply at these for opportunities to buy weakness.
Biden & GOP Senate
Without the Senate, a President Biden would be hard pressed to get through the more draconian aspects of his agenda. The biggest winners are small businesses, which are known as pass-through businesses and file as individuals. The next big winner are investors. Not just stock, but any investor, and this is great news for a nation built on investment.
I still worry about opening the floodgate for foreigner tech workers that get paid less than Americans. Why the hell do they keep telling use to teach our daughters how to code when they want to give the jobs to folks that will take less pay. The news has tech stock soaring, but it is not great for our children.
|
Policy Proposal |
Stocks impacted (Positive or Negative) |
Required for Approval |
|
Repeal Tax Cuts & increase capital gains |
Earnings Growth |
Congress & 51 Senate votes |
|
Provide additional fiscal stimulus |
Earnings Growth |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
Expand ACA and create public option |
ANTM, UNH, HUM, MOH, WCG, CI, CYH, THC, HCA, UHS |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
Allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices |
LLY, MRK, BMY, AGN, AMGN, TEVA. |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
New Carbon tax, ban offshore drilling |
XOM, CVX, BP, COP, OXY, WLL, SM, XOG, CLR, MRO, HAL, SLB |
Congress/60 Senate votes and some exec authority |
|
Climate Change Plan |
TAN, FSLR, SPWR, JKS, CSIQ, RUN, FE, NEE, NLR, EXC, CCJ |
Congress &60 Senate Votes |
|
Increased banking regulation |
XLF, BAC, C, WFC, GS, MS, USB, PNC |
Executive Authority/Court Challenges |
|
Abolish private prisons |
CXW, GEO |
Congress& 60 Senate Votes |
|
Infrastructure |
FLR, KBR, ACM, GVA, USCR, VMC, MLM, CAT |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
Increased technology regulation |
AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOG, TWTR |
Executive Authority/Court Challenges |
|
Weed decriminalization not legalization |
ACB, TLRY, CRON, CGC, MJ |
Congress & 60 Senate votes |
|
2-year free college & expand debt relief |
NAVI, SLM |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
Raise minimum wage to $15/hour |
DG, DLTR, BIG, FIVE, WMT, TGT |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
Increase defense spending |
GD, NOC, LMT, HRS |
Congress & 60 Senate Votes |
|
Crack down on China reevaluate tariffs. |
Semis, retail, industrials, autos, and agricultural |
Executive Authority |
We are adding to Industrials this morning in our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
Major indices are looking to open at all-time highs. Then, the interesting thing will be to see which wins the rest of the session:
Panic buying or profit-taking?
| Comments |
| Yes Ron White on 11/9/2020 9:55:07 AM |
| No Stewart Dearing on 11/9/2020 10:05:01 AM |
| Yes I am immune suppressed and will get a vaccination asap. Paul Newcomer on 11/9/2020 10:07:34 AM |
| No I will not take a vaccine. Not necessary. Ken Robb on 11/9/2020 10:17:38 AM |
| Of course I would take it! Karin Pereira on 11/9/2020 10:17:40 AM |
| News of this day is so big, usually at least a 3 day run, standard sit, then up over Q4. Donald McArthur on 11/9/2020 10:20:51 AM |
| Hell Yes! Richard Bucher on 11/9/2020 10:22:07 AM |
| Therapeutics only. Never a vaccine, covid mutates too much, as always vaccines prove to be almost worthless. Idaho_7 on 11/9/2020 10:24:06 AM |
| https://wmbriggs.com/post/33377/ https://twitter.com/i/status/1325462901407289344 ........ telegraphing the fear ........transparent George ........>>.....( 400k ballots where biden was voted for and no other candidate for other offices on the ballot had a check mark ?? )......really? part 2.........in pittsburgh the line was 2 blocks long taking 2hrs to vote ( intentionally trying to discourage voting ) with magically broken machines & no referees ........ i gave the person my name she shuffles through the sheets and says she could not find my name ( i saw my name as it shuffled ) ....i said try again....she once again shuffled and said she did not see my name...i said go back a few pages....she said > oh there it is...... ..........i could be wrong... but there were 2 people ( i say democrats ) going up & down the street offering free sbux thanking you for voting ......... was it a reverse psycholgy game so you would not complain to officials?... don't worry be happy?.......it was weird ..........just wondering why PFE announced the news 6 days after the election and after biden was declared king....PFE had no idea 3-4 weeks ago?.....i have a bridge for sale prettydirect on 11/9/2020 10:25:12 AM |
| I won't be first in line. But after a period of time I will. Troy Dameron on 11/9/2020 10:30:04 AM |
| Love your comments and perspective Charles especially the draconian adjective description of bidens plans. We are mostly in mutual funds but your wisdom helps us. Hellfire18 on 11/9/2020 10:36:23 AM |
| Yes Harry Friedman on 11/9/2020 10:43:41 AM |
| My wife are 78 and 75 and in good health, but of course we will take it! John W, Orwig on 11/9/2020 10:51:02 AM |
| No. Not right away. Adam on 11/9/2020 10:59:31 AM |
| As a physician and over 74 I definitely will take vaccines as soon as possible Richard Hart on 11/9/2020 11:01:25 AM |
| Probably, but not 100% on board just yet. Cheryl Love on 11/9/2020 11:04:25 AM |
| YES Lee Childs on 11/9/2020 11:09:42 AM |
| Charles...I love your chart on what Biden cannot get done if he gets away with this election. Both my wife and I are healthy but would definitely get the vaccine. God Bless America Gregory Timm on 11/9/2020 11:10:24 AM |
| Yes, definitely will take the vaccine, just like the flu vaccine. Charles, thanks for all your writings. I must say, after last week there are only a few people I will watch on Fox Business, you of course, Stu Varney, the great Maria B, Dobbs & McDonald. Otherwise it's OAN and NewsMax! James Lewis on 11/9/2020 11:22:29 AM |
| I think most agree that this vaccine will work BUT for how long? We still don't know if herd immunity works (no profits there) so why would we think that immunity from a drug would work long term???? Big Pharma seems to be looking for an HIV situation where the disease is chronic and requires frequent medical attention. Sorry, but I don't fully trust these guys. Robert DesRochers on 11/9/2020 11:38:22 AM |
| Yes, I'll take the vaccine when prescribed. Ron LaCour on 11/9/2020 11:41:24 AM |
| I will in due time. I'm more worried about what happened in this election than I am COVID 19. The first people that it should be offered to are the ones that are at the most risk. Robert Clanton on 11/9/2020 11:52:10 AM |
| Yes, my wife and I are both in our mid 80's David Johnson on 11/9/2020 12:10:50 PM |
| RE: Vacccine Probably not. Harry Towler on 11/9/2020 12:13:25 PM |
| As a senior citizen, I will take the vaccine when offered; unless there is evidence it is not as effective as promised or has deleterious side effects. Congrats to Pfizer! S. Waite on 11/9/2020 12:28:05 PM |
| you bet. My doctor said he will be the first to take it. China anyone? kris gage on 11/9/2020 12:30:29 PM |
| Yes ,right after I get the anti-viral test and I do NOT have the anti-bodies' in my blood at that time. John Cowger on 11/9/2020 1:41:38 PM |
| I will take the vaccine. Thomas Behan on 11/9/2020 1:51:02 PM |
| Yes, if data supports safety over reasonable time. Susan Justus on 11/9/2020 2:08:15 PM |
| No way Jay Mathewson on 11/9/2020 2:30:39 PM |
| Yes I would take the vaccine if it was approved Robert Coppock on 11/9/2020 3:07:18 PM |
| Too new. Don't know long-range effects. Beverly Thomas on 11/9/2020 3:10:53 PM |
| YES NO HESITATION. James Bishop on 11/9/2020 5:02:53 PM |
| I have congestive heart disease hell yeah I’ll take the vaccine. Tim hartsfield on 11/9/2020 5:30:49 PM |
| I agree with you on the visas for the tech industries. I was a programmer, retired, and in 1995 I worked for a company called Chiron that brought in programmers from India for a new software package. We thought it was to train us. Saw the handwriting on the wall and left for another company. Within a year all the programmers were gone. Didn't realize it at the time but that was the beginning of outsourcing American jobs IN America. Politicians don't seem to care about American jobs in or out of America. Fred Ward on 11/9/2020 5:48:39 PM |
| Yes, but only if I get a little sticker to wear so I can ditch my mask! Pulling for Trump to get the vaccine distributed and the economy opened up before inauguration and a potential Biden shut down. Biden has to implement a stricter shutdown to justify his criticism of Trump's Warp Speed strategy. Dems would rather see America suffer and fail than Trump succeed. Paul Wittrock on 11/9/2020 5:57:06 PM |
| I agree with you on the visas for the tech industries. I was a programmer, retired, and in 1995 I worked for a company that brought in programmers from India for a new software package. We thought it was to train us. Saw the handwriting on the wall and left for another company. Within a year all the programmers were gone and the programmers from India stayed. Didn't realize it at the time but that was the beginning of outsourcing American jobs IN America. Politicians don't seem to care about American jobs in or out of America. K Gudenau on 11/9/2020 5:59:06 PM |
| I would take it. I'm over 70, and would not like to catch that Covid virus. Patricia Flynn on 11/9/2020 7:04:59 PM |
| I thought I would not, but now think I will Vicki bonilla on 11/9/2020 7:17:42 PM |
| With only 10% of a chance if not being effective/side effects, and 90% of doing good-yes I will gladly take it and at 70 yo I hope to be one of the first in line Kim Kennedy on 11/10/2020 6:06:26 AM |
| I'll wait for my wife to tell me. I never took flu vaccines until she asked and then it could not be the live version. I'm looking forward to additional approvals as well. CP Charles Payne on 11/10/2020 6:11:02 AM |
| I haven't had a flu shot in years. Maybe in time. Will watch and listen... Michael D Thomas on 11/10/2020 7:27:22 AM |
| No w w on 11/10/2020 7:36:30 AM |
| The little women and I will be first in line to take the vaccine, then a trip to the Bahamas. Frank Culus Jones on 11/10/2020 8:44:43 AM |
| I used to be a strong believer in vaccines, had a lot of arguments with family members about it, after this election cycle i`m not a big believer anymore, my main argument used to be that it is impossible for so many companies and so many government officials to cover up if there is really something wrong with vaccines, but what we have seen in the last month changes that narrative, big tech deciding whats true and whats not true, media not covering stories they dont like, i can see now a scenario where there is something wrong with a vaccine and the political elite feel that it is important for the country (their agenda) and they will cover it up together with the media, they will even clap them self's in the back how moral they are. Mike Oberlander on 11/10/2020 10:06:18 AM |
| I am not an anti-vaccine person but I have never taken a flu vaccine. I feel that if I get the flu my body will fight it. Likewise for COVID - since I do not have any significant underlying health issues my body will fight the virus. I recognize that a significant problem with this virus is that it can cause a cytokine storm in which your own body's immune system can cause more harm than the virus. There are things we can do to stay healthy and steps to follow if you get COVID. Additionally the mortality rate in the US is well below 3% and keeps shrinking as the media continues to foster panic by reporting solely the number of new cases and rarely gives the new hospitalizations, the hospital bed capacity or new deaths. Ed on 11/10/2020 2:55:34 PM |
| Yes I will 70 yrs old +comorbidity Easy decision Wayne on 11/10/2020 3:07:54 PM |
| 77 years old , good health, I would take it. Lorin on 11/10/2020 8:04:07 PM |
| Yes. William on 11/11/2020 3:23:16 PM |
| Yes David Woolard on 11/12/2020 1:45:02 PM |
| Negative, I will not be accepting the vaccine. Dean on 11/12/2020 1:45:12 PM |
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